South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Mirassol FC vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5de8bd14c8c2368a51aba5d6c725a2de3b181035d537083f4ae813484dc2ba88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 73c | 10,025$7,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,706.69 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 80c | 9,923$7,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,027.78 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…9fc9backed Yes | 27c | 6,289$1,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,698 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 28c | 5,000$1,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.23 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 15c | 4,696$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.94 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 3,778$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.71 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 18c | 2,042$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.47 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,825$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.38 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 72c | 1,800$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 19c | 1,328$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.38 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 18c | 784.37$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.72 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 27c | 680.87$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.83 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 79c | 616.29$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.04 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd34…7f2abacked Yes | 4c | 450$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 72c | 409.4$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.9 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 27c | 385.14$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.62 | 180 | 50%90 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 72c | 287.47$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.52 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked No | 72c | 261.75$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.29 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 9c | 216.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 72c | 190$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 72c | 190$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Yes | 18c | 188.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 72c | 167.39$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed Yes | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 209 | 34%71 W · 138 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Yes | 25c | 166.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 73c | 157.99$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 245 | 35.5%87 W · 158 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Yes | 25c | 155.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 72c | 126.67$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed No | 75c | 125$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed No | 73c | 99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed Yes | 27c | 97.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 167 | 51.5%86 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed No | 72c | 97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 25c | 93.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 25c | 93.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Yes | 25c | 77.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 27c | 57.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -4.6wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 73c | 16.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 278 | 55.4%154 W · 124 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mirassol FC vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw?this page
- Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-08-16?Yes won
- Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-08-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.