TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: LOUD vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
LOUDof LOUD, paiN Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$98,157
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$118,486

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,157 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3c59…3887backed paiN Gaming55c7,074$3,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,855.7911129.7%33 W · 78 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x868b…1eb0backed paiN Gaming46c5,773$2,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,655.710550.5%53 W · 52 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed paiN Gaming8c5,046$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.671,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed paiN Gaming12c5,044$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.23,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked LOUD71c4,505$3,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,285.6359952.8%316 W · 283 L-3.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-12.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked LOUD56c4,445$2,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,944.521,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f40…e1f2backed LOUD50c3,238$1,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,619.569345.2%42 W · 51 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed LOUD66c3,150$2,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.1569539.1%272 W · 423 L-36.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed LOUD47c3,000$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,59085746.3%397 W · 460 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked LOUD52c2,580$1,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,231.411,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed paiN Gaming21c2,125$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.631,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed LOUD60c2,050$1,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8111,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked LOUD56c2,038$1,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.1695041.6%395 W · 555 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed paiN Gaming41c2,036$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.381,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked LOUD55c2,013$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913.061,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed paiN Gaming38c1,999$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.61,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked LOUD62c1,997$1,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.982,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43ff…a491backed LOUD79c1,994$1,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.2118554.1%100 W · 85 L+18.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+5.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed paiN Gaming42c1,987$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.611,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked LOUD60c1,934$1,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.192,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed paiN Gaming40c1,736$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.5471249.2%350 W · 362 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked paiN Gaming31c1,664$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.0395951.3%492 W · 467 L+42.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed LOUD55c1,593$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.791,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed LOUD47c1,287$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.2876142%320 W · 441 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed paiN Gaming39c1,254$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.8880832.9%266 W · 542 L-43.9wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked LOUD77c1,193$922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.561,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed paiN Gaming42c1,190$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.791,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed paiN Gaming51c1,098$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.7663546.6%296 W · 339 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed LOUD58c958.24$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.285442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed paiN Gaming41c827.43$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.251,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fbc…62a3backed LOUD56c747.21$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.2663161.2%386 W · 245 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked paiN Gaming35c725.92$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.0796048.8%468 W · 492 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29f6…d6b6backed paiN Gaming38c665.16$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.132828.6%8 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-39.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed LOUD55c614.42$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.8518139.2%71 W · 110 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed LOUD59c600$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2461,18352%615 W · 568 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed LOUD57c599.99$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25842148.2%203 W · 218 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed LOUD64c554.18$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.332,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1fd…4ab3backed LOUD58c551.74$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.156058.3%35 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick60cpaid+5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08c7…7203backed paiN Gaming5c550.57$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8613911.5%16 W · 123 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb003…d962backed paiN Gaming57c516.86$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.1879151.8%410 W · 381 L+15.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed paiN Gaming57c513$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.2548353.4%258 W · 225 L-19.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed LOUD60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20086251.3%442 W · 420 L+51.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked LOUD48c452.02$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.2482044%361 W · 459 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked LOUD50c441.27$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.831,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d83…272cbacked paiN Gaming47c415.58$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.7559241.9%248 W · 344 L-16.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a57…968cbacked paiN Gaming53c415.35$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.9256341%231 W · 332 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed paiN Gaming11c392.31$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.821,72829.5%509 W · 1,219 L-123.2wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-39.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xebf4…181ebacked LOUD79c376.79$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.813974.4%29 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick71cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0960…5adcbacked paiN Gaming53c366.72$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.3612642.1%53 W · 73 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed paiN Gaming55c355.79$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.6876953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200e…e21dbacked paiN Gaming41c353.82$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.6899747.1%470 W · 527 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c4e…6c11backed paiN Gaming37c338.71$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.2436749.9%183 W · 184 L+15.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x59aa…3376backed paiN Gaming44c329.45$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.961,13143.1%487 W · 644 L+0.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb515…cd6bbacked paiN Gaming40c303.66$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.4612047.5%57 W · 63 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3333…3c23backed paiN Gaming37c301.03$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.6428042.5%119 W · 161 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed LOUD60c300$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1201,22549.6%607 W · 618 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed LOUD63c299.98$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.993,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47c6…2fe4backed LOUD78c256.57$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4456650%283 W · 283 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d4c…935ebacked LOUD57c248.67$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.9313433.6%45 W · 89 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-29.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed paiN Gaming37c248.16$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.132,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed LOUD65c240$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.21,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe625…94c0backed paiN Gaming43c229.31$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.674344%327 W · 416 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8a5…26a1backed paiN Gaming14c224.45$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.426245.2%28 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63ff…5f94backed LOUD78c220.19$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.4416058.1%93 W · 67 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed paiN Gaming14c217.15$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2136647.3%173 W · 193 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbf0…4046backed paiN Gaming53c211$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.8311361.9%70 W · 43 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3870…4fc3backed paiN Gaming46c209.99$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.68831.8%28 W · 60 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-1.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7ee9…20a2backed LOUD60c204.21$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.6812349.6%61 W · 62 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked paiN Gaming14c202.83$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8136946.1%170 W · 199 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd94…6b1ebacked paiN Gaming44c197.7$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.1484041%344 W · 496 L-38.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf592…b62dbacked LOUD62c197.34$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.5168557.5%394 W · 291 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed LOUD47c184.62$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.721,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb953…5393backed paiN Gaming54c180.07$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2457151.5%294 W · 277 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f05…85c5backed LOUD65c179.64$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.8739861.8%246 W · 152 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x398d…b8d6backed paiN Gaming44c175.51$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3564451.2%330 W · 314 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked paiN Gaming56c174.24$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3526844%118 W · 150 L-37.1wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-26.2%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed paiN Gaming27c171.82$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.021,83117.1%313 W · 1,518 L-236.0wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-46%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x87df…48f3backed LOUD75c170.8$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.755466.7%36 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x675f…aa0bbacked paiN Gaming47c161.06$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4822747.6%108 W · 119 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x69f0…2dc9backed paiN Gaming13c151.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.719645.8%44 W · 52 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc671…b0c7backed paiN Gaming47c116.25$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2242847.9%205 W · 223 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed paiN Gaming35c108.15$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4750549.3%249 W · 256 L+2.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd11d…5656backed LOUD46c104.16$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.7750647.2%239 W · 267 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed LOUD48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5239239%153 W · 239 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d07…8b9ebacked paiN Gaming21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2144047.5%209 W · 231 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf87…2974backed LOUD47c90.19$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.225113.7%7 W · 44 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84b1…9645backed paiN Gaming22c86.13$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0711050%55 W · 55 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x34f9…12ebbacked paiN Gaming36c80.91$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1330632%98 W · 208 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b2d…aad2backed paiN Gaming28c80$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.43542.9%15 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dd4…7401backed paiN Gaming19c79.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3115017.3%26 W · 124 L-26.8wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-61.2%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed paiN Gaming27c78.72$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.11,53943.7%673 W · 866 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked LOUD66c78.04$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7341651.2%213 W · 203 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ed5…8165backed LOUD65c75.31$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.3634844.8%156 W · 192 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x56b3…2c42backed paiN Gaming36c74.52$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8311552.2%60 W · 55 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6ab…5080backed paiN Gaming44c68.09$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9619257.8%111 W · 81 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-10.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a02…a770backed LOUD61c63.94$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.941,37248.6%667 W · 705 L+57.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc064…6fa8backed LOUD60c63.39$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3346846.8%219 W · 249 L-23.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e51…71d4backed LOUD62c59.89$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7617658%102 W · 74 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked paiN Gaming38c59$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.421,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x337e…9b4ebacked paiN Gaming43c57.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9232554.8%178 W · 147 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.