TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Keydof Keyd, Yawara Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$69,719
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$82,015

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,719 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6d20…a165backed Yawara Esports54c18,720$10,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,087.56160.7%37 W · 24 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+23.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked Keyd53c10,005$5,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,675.7892456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Keyd46c5,794$2,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,128.877,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Keyd46c1,425$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.735,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Keyd65c1,020$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.926,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x615d…bd5bbacked Keyd45c811.96$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.995641.1%23 W · 33 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Keyd49c760.01$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.033,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked Yawara Esports50c705$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.394645.8%433 W · 513 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Yawara Esports59c672.25$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.41,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Keyd48c647$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.2345754.5%249 W · 208 L+18.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Keyd64c632.71$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.471,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Keyd46c617.56$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.0989046.1%410 W · 480 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf876…1deebacked Yawara Esports43c612.08$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.4319546.2%90 W · 105 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Yawara Esports46c578.8$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.31,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0ac…7deebacked Yawara Esports28c521.75$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.0943152.9%228 W · 203 L+26.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Yawara Esports49c465$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.042,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Yawara Esports29c441.99$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.365,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9cb4…0201backed Yawara Esports46c434.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007245.8%33 W · 39 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0593…9712backed Keyd66c417.53$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.6428173%205 W · 76 L+21.6wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+11.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x070f…ed83backed Yawara Esports55c411$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.947856.4%44 W · 34 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Yawara Esports45c399.99$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1802,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3a5…cd84backed Yawara Esports50c396.77$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006048.3%29 W · 31 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Keyd47c380.9$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.442,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Keyd55c366.29$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.291,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Yawara Esports50c345$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.0975438.9%293 W · 461 L-38.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1982…bc7bbacked Yawara Esports16c308.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6231845.3%144 W · 174 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Yawara Esports43c301.92$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.982,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1522…70febacked Yawara Esports45c287$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.636645.6%167 W · 199 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Keyd48c273.23$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.335,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Yawara Esports36c265.76$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.431,65032.7%540 W · 1,110 L-49.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Yawara Esports40c250$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.023,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Keyd71c228.65$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.964,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddbd…bcb5backed Yawara Esports30c216.08$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.916720.4%34 W · 133 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-35.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6334…6fa3backed Yawara Esports50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002544%11 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed Keyd46c194.24$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.8941853.6%224 W · 194 L-0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Yawara Esports48c193.62$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.461,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Yawara Esports44c191.53$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.093,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Yawara Esports49c177.28$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.053,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Yawara Esports38c175$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.014,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x189e…5aaebacked Keyd46c174.33$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.1418753.5%100 W · 87 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Yawara Esports38c171.69$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9996543.5%420 W · 545 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Keyd60c171.51$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.234,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c5f…31d1backed Yawara Esports20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306820.6%14 W · 54 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-47.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Keyd54c146.29$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.071,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69dc…0cf5backed Keyd71c140$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.787866.7%52 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Yawara Esports44c135.84$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.414,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8811…627cbacked Keyd59c135.68$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.339772.5%288 W · 109 L+38.5wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaa41…255bbacked Keyd53c132.08$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.08366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12bc…bf2fbacked Keyd78c130.77$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2437441.7%156 W · 218 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked Yawara Esports52c129.58$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.419954.8%109 W · 90 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Yawara Esports42c126$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.022,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Keyd49c113.67$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3150051.4%257 W · 243 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33b0…a413backed Yawara Esports49c103.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4920%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e5f…6ee5backed Keyd46c102.24$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.216040%24 W · 36 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Keyd61c101.37$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.6860032.3%194 W · 406 L-49.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-38.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd441…87febacked Keyd46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.12927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5663…f2e5backed Keyd46c93.24$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3524152.3%126 W · 115 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64a3…450abacked Yawara Esports29c90$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.130349.8%151 W · 152 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Keyd47c88.59$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.374653.5%399 W · 347 L+9.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca2…1798backed Keyd71c88$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5215277.6%118 W · 34 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick73cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc70b…d2f2backed Keyd46c86.78$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.866552.3%34 W · 31 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf20b…e27dbacked Yawara Esports49c85.08$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8333340.2%134 W · 199 L+13.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4787…db20backed Keyd47c78.88$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7416361.3%100 W · 63 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Yawara Esports43c74$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9764046.3%296 W · 344 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Keyd66c73.16$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.872,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6efa…a0a7backed Yawara Esports29c70$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.330247%142 W · 160 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c6c…5e36backed Yawara Esports44c66.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3923956.5%135 W · 104 L+15.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe83a…8355backed Keyd57c64.35$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8636856.8%209 W · 159 L+13.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb87…a45dbacked Yawara Esports60c64.18$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4230450.7%154 W · 150 L-0.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b22…377ebacked Keyd72c62.39$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2436174.8%270 W · 91 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb98a…914bbacked Yawara Esports61c61.73$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3611446.5%53 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Keyd67c60.76$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.911,36566.3%905 W · 460 L+76.1wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x15bc…4a7ebacked Yawara Esports60c60.76$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4820147.8%96 W · 105 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bce…d19ebacked Keyd56c56.65$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed Yawara Esports52c54.07$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1251348.3%248 W · 265 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Keyd52c54$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.862,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2bf3…4f00backed Keyd46c52.3$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2440857.1%233 W · 175 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6986…3369backed Keyd50c51.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.839849%48 W · 50 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-5.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed Yawara Esports53c50.2$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.432844.8%147 W · 181 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f06…a799backed Yawara Esports62c47.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.646647%31 W · 35 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Keyd46c47.41$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.61,03353.2%550 W · 483 L+64.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xde25…c0a5backed Keyd49c47.04$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8922049.1%108 W · 112 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39b2…157cbacked Keyd46c46.52$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.128153.1%43 W · 38 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5ca…19c8backed Yawara Esports56c46.36$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.085450%27 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Keyd57c45$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.222,47334.6%855 W · 1,618 L-188.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xbca8…ab36backed Keyd46c42.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.031258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc263…1e83backed Keyd50c41.62$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9734750.7%176 W · 171 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5407…5bbdbacked Yawara Esports26c40.78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.82429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-29.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6376…d0a7backed Keyd73c38.36$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.361866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+22.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Yawara Esports37c37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.692,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Yawara Esports40c37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.751,63043.2%704 W · 926 L-32.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7029…1136backed Keyd45c35.46$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.521351.2%109 W · 104 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Yawara Esports53c35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.551,84847.6%879 W · 969 L-55.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Keyd52c33.33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.951,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc42…b12cbacked Yawara Esports47c29.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.06540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-31%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b3…4a99backed Yawara Esports51c29.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1529731%92 W · 205 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x944e…2918backed Keyd51c27.92$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.682755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Yawara Esports39c27.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.652,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Keyd46c25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.52,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f53…d5abbacked Yawara Esports53c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2532649.7%162 W · 164 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.