Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e6820068ca13c645082e674e978a007ebb0135453ff94278db1b4157882ccdd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 613.4$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.51 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 33c | 578.18$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.1 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 534.2$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 66c | 351.42$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.94 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 276.33$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.89 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 19c | 229.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.95 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 224.48$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 64c | 223.33$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.59 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 13c | 204.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 198$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.68 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 13c | 189.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 172.88$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.67 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 158.32$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 67c | 149.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.49 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 119$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.66 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 26c | 109.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.54 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 65c | 105$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 36c | 85.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2065…548abacked Yes | 30c | 85.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 27c | 85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.85 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 67c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 14c | 69.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.79 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 18c | 69.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.09 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 65c | 67.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 28c | 67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.11 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 20c | 65.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 60.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 36c | 58.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 57.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…c2b6backed Yes | 20c | 56.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.53 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 76c | 56.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 68c | 53.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 50.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 33c | 50.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 50.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 33c | 48.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 27c | 46.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 71c | 45.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 66c | 42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 26c | 41.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 59c | 38.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 75c | 38.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 32c | 37.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d42…a046backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 31.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed Yes | 32c | 31.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 27.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 40c | 25.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 67c | 22.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 79c | 18.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 67c | 15.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or below on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.