Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e7ebe140d87373f4ddc6ac0e62489a84036563deb8e62abcf7a39b1404c1912
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 41c | 832.88$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 68c | 649.85$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.86 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 35c | 601$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.27 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 448.79$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.9 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 56c | 399.81$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.41 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 352$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.14 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 30c | 331.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.06 | 1,866 | 25.4%474 W · 1,392 L | +134.7wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 300.44$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.66 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef1…4fa2backed Yes | 49c | 272.97$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6293…675fbacked Yes | 35c | 250.7$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 45c | 246.04$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.86 | 431 | 53.1%229 W · 202 L | +25.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 25c | 216$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 205.15$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.7 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 61c | 164.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 706 | 45.8%323 W · 383 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 67c | 148.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 146.98$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 26c | 134.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 432 | 43.8%189 W · 243 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 38c | 132.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 158 | 30.4%48 W · 110 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 50c | 128.57$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 63c | 119.45$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 32c | 115.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…bc63backed Yes | 67c | 115$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.05 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 36c | 115$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 1,119 | 23.7%265 W · 854 L | +74.2wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 671 | 38.9%261 W · 410 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 32c | 108.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 103.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 35c | 100.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 152 | 28.3%43 W · 109 L | -13.1wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 625 | 39.7%248 W · 377 L | +28.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 923 | 55.9%516 W · 407 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 57c | 99.48$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.18 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 60c | 95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 940 | 44.8%421 W · 519 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 54c | 85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 50c | 84.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 77c | 83.61$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 269 | 35.7%96 W · 173 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 75.28$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 492 | 59.6%293 W · 199 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 35c | 74.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 414 | 43.2%179 W · 235 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 30c | 73.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 171 | 31%53 W · 118 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 67c | 72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…c771backed Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 24c | 67.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 44c | 66.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 56c | 65.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…56a3backed No | 59c | 65.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 64.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 36c | 64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 61c | 63.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x916a…a599backed No | 73c | 62.36$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 54c | 61.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 67c | 59.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 55c | 58.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 197 | 55.8%110 W · 87 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7857…76d9backed No | 51c | 58.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…3c03backed Yes | 28c | 58.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 58.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce8e…cd63backed Yes | 51c | 58.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 109 | 54.1%59 W · 50 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 33c | 57.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd57f…e0f8backed Yes | 56c | 56.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 62c | 55.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 31c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 36c | 54.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 1,274 | 52.5%669 W · 605 L | -17.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 76c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 112 | 72.3%81 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa4…eae5backed Yes | 38c | 52.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 77c | 51.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 795 | 63.5%505 W · 290 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 33c | 51.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 236 | 34.3%81 W · 155 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,301 | 32.9%428 W · 873 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 4,313 | 53.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L | +158.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 374 | 67.4%252 W · 122 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc4…a136backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 33c | 49.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked No | 65c | 49.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 171 | 32.2%55 W · 116 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…fae7backed Yes | 64c | 49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 39c | 48.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 44c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 73c | 47.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 384 | 42.4%163 W · 221 L | -12.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 32c | 46.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc5…a968backed Yes | 34c | 46.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 44c | 46.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 31c | 45.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 56c | 44.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbded…48b7backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…8c99backed No | 68c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 36c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 43c | 39.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 36c | 39.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…38b0backed Yes | 33c | 37.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 29c | 37.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 550 | 26.9%148 W · 402 L | -66.5wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f04…9badbacked Yes | 33c | 34.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +55%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 77c | 34.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 168 | 63.7%107 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked No | 64c | 34.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 39c | 33.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 45c | 33.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 62c | 33.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C or below on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or higher on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.