Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe448d1c9a5ed502738657829abcbaa6bb360e50899212c143134c81da3090e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 54c | 910.37$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.38 | 124 | 41.9%52 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 877$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 65c | 667.12$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.98 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 77c | 464.44$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.18 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 32c | 458.85$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.03 | 323 | 45.8%148 W · 175 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 40c | 425.08$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.77 | 665 | 21.8%145 W · 520 L | -27.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 32c | 316.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.85 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 66c | 312.83$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.24 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…427cbacked No | 78c | 299.21$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.32 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 32c | 212.47$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.36 | 431 | 53.1%229 W · 202 L | +25.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…bc63backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 197.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.98 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 62c | 193.96$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.71 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 29c | 192.96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.43 | 1,119 | 23.7%265 W · 854 L | +74.2wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 167.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.9 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 158.3$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.7 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 148.97$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 147.09$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.19 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 73c | 140.88$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 29c | 136.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.72 | 1,458 | 27.8%406 W · 1,052 L | +77.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 33c | 136.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.15 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 21c | 133$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.07 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 34c | 130.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 69c | 129.56$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.03 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee2b…a97abacked Yes | 29c | 119.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.48 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.27per pick | 50cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 17c | 111.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.54 | 190 | 46.3%88 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 37c | 107.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 75c | 106.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.24 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +9.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.06 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 98.75$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.15 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.01 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…0985backed No | 76c | 97.73$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.66 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 37c | 97.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…fae7backed Yes | 38c | 96.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 91.77$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 69c | 90.39$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 22c | 89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.42 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 27c | 87.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 855 | 48.7%416 W · 439 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 59c | 84.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 81.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 80.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 42c | 79.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.39 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 64c | 77.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 74.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 62c | 71.84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 29c | 68.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 492 | 59.6%293 W · 199 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 52c | 68.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 293 | 37.5%110 W · 183 L | +13.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 31c | 64.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 54c | 64.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 74c | 64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0458…ddc2backed Yes | 28c | 63.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 31c | 61.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.76 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | +32.0wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 69c | 61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 47c | 60.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…4b96backed Yes | 24c | 57.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 35c | 56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 552 | 38.8%214 W · 338 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 35c | 55.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 55.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 470 | 47.2%222 W · 248 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed No | 37c | 54.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 158 | 30.4%48 W · 110 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 47c | 52.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 52.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 27c | 51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 940 | 44.8%421 W · 519 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 1,301 | 32.9%428 W · 873 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc2…4837backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,276 | 47.6%607 W · 669 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc4…a136backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbd…ceeabacked Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 58c | 44.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 49c | 44.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 168 | 68.5%115 W · 53 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 36c | 42.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 465 | 59.1%275 W · 190 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 28c | 41.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 38c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 64c | 40.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 289 | 52.6%152 W · 137 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 1,615 | 61.9%999 W · 616 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 73c | 39.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 63c | 39.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 40c | 38.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 53c | 38.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 32c | 38.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 37.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 74c | 37.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 632 | 47.3%299 W · 333 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 74c | 31.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 29.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…0a35backed Yes | 78c | 28.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 75c | 26.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba9…5ba8backed Yes | 78c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked No | 74c | 25.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 159 | 26.4%42 W · 117 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 44c | 25.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 162 | 48.8%79 W · 83 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 163 | 25.8%42 W · 121 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…253ebacked No | 72c | 24.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d4…456dbacked No | 80c | 24.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C or below on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or higher on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.