CS2 · resolved market
CS: Astralis vs Legacy
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e9c6daa103913e905664cc1faa32c4b3c9159945ba561e13e932d0a76194b4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Astralisof Astralis, Legacy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $218,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $225,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $218,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b1d…74ccbacked Legacy | 45c | 182,021$81,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81,716.59 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Astralis | 56c | 63,375$35,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,802.56 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Astralis | 54c | 50,000$27,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,000 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Astralis | 55c | 27,557$15,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,353.85 | 216 | 45.4%98 W · 118 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Astralis | 54c | 15,555$8,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,155.3 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Astralis | 54c | 9,004$4,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,100.22 | 458 | 48.5%222 W · 236 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Legacy | 32c | 4,407$1,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,427.44 | 273 | 45.8%125 W · 148 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a0…dab5backed Legacy | 18c | 3,042$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.47 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Astralis | 57c | 3,000$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290 | 139 | 54.7%76 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Astralis | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380 | 231 | 45.9%106 W · 125 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6f…4999backed Astralis | 57c | 2,838$1,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220.2 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed Astralis | 57c | 2,500$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Legacy | 43c | 2,480$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.8 | 208 | 55.3%115 W · 93 L | +18.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Astralis | 53c | 1,879$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.13 | 249 | 35.7%89 W · 160 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Astralis | 57c | 1,754$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.39 | 817 | 51.7%422 W · 395 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Legacy | 2c | 1,696$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Legacy | 47c | 1,530$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.28 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Astralis | 62c | 1,500$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.58 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b16…0dc4backed Astralis | 78c | 1,020$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.09 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…050cbacked Astralis | 57c | 1,009$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.67 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Astralis | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Astralis | 58c | 793$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.06 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Astralis | 56c | 739.99$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.6 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Legacy | 44c | 726.39$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.61 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +6.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Legacy | 41c | 700$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked Legacy | 27c | 610.36$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.82 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Astralis | 57c | 599$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.57 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d5…3604backed Astralis | 60c | 542.37$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…4b40backed Astralis | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.32 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Legacy | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 283 | 51.9%147 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Astralis | 54c | 495.82$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.82 | 687 | 53.9%370 W · 317 L | -21.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…7465backed Legacy | 42c | 493$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.86 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2612backed Astralis | 57c | 460$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.5 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Astralis | 57c | 418$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.74 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…99ffbacked Astralis | 55c | 368.64$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.94 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…de5abacked Astralis | 57c | 310.53$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.53 | 244 | 40.6%99 W · 145 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa52c…ef80backed Legacy | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Astralis | 58c | 260$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Astralis | 54c | 245$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Legacy | 42c | 224.63$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.34 | 220 | 56.4%124 W · 96 L | +19.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed Astralis | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…50c9backed Legacy | 34c | 192.64$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.82 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…b1dfbacked Legacy | 17c | 177.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d1…f540backed Astralis | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 178 | 49.4%88 W · 90 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89a8…c206backed Astralis | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Astralis | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 736 | 58.2%428 W · 308 L | -22.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Legacy | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 965 | 45.7%441 W · 524 L | +10.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f0…c11dbacked Astralis | 54c | 160.17$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.27 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed Astralis | 58c | 151.72$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7594…1f03backed Legacy | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Astralis | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Astralis | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…79f9backed Legacy | 42c | 119$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -13.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2dc…5ac3backed Astralis | 57c | 101.25$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e9…4a51backed Astralis | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba7…2cdbbacked Astralis | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed Astralis | 59c | 86.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -7.1wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Astralis | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 1,310 | 53.7%703 W · 607 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d5…9562backed Legacy | 15c | 67.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed Astralis | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 420 | 57.1%240 W · 180 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf117…31b6backed Astralis | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -6.1wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbb…e5bcbacked Astralis | 80c | 51.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7f…9fecbacked Astralis | 59c | 44.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a3…d285backed Astralis | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Astralis | 71c | 35.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 384 | 52.3%201 W · 183 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5d…77bdbacked Astralis | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddd…6144backed Legacy | 44c | 34.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x386e…14cdbacked Legacy | 43c | 31.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5a…2eccbacked Astralis | 57c | 30.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked Astralis | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a0…4038backed Astralis | 71c | 22.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.