TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Knicks (-0.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Hawksof Knicks, Hawks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,503
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,777

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,503 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x021c…232fbacked Hawks51c8,105$4,146 inWon+$3,959.6512056.7%68 W · 52 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Knicks49c5,440$2,666 inLost-$2,665.71,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8873…09fcbacked Knicks50c4,266$2,133 inLost-$2,132.927848.7%38 W · 40 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Knicks49c1,500$735 inLost-$73550346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Knicks48c1,307$627 inLost-$627.352,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbd4…5faabacked Hawks51c475.78$243 inWon+$233.135044%22 W · 28 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Knicks50c253.94$126 inLost-$125.9987049.3%429 W · 441 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Knicks49c166.9$82 inLost-$81.781,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ff2…8ea1backed Knicks51c127.28$65 inLost-$64.91540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Knicks20c100$20 inLost-$20.123741.4%98 W · 139 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x85ec…65e9backed Knicks50c99.72$50 inLost-$49.861758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+25.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Knicks25c75$18 inLost-$18.562047.3%293 W · 327 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Knicks49c74.99$37 inLost-$36.7536749.6%182 W · 185 L+1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69b9…a5d5backed Hawks70c60.88$42 inWon+$18.393256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+18.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Hawks50c40$20 inWon+$2062051.1%317 W · 303 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xddf2…8bf0backed Knicks50c38.8$19 inLost-$19.45947.5%28 W · 31 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe64b…9cf1backed Hawks79c34.56$27 inWon+$7.31457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Hawks63c24.45$15 inWon+$9.043,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.