Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f4907329888bfe36b5f58c9a8b954442134eca2f4e37fe742bbd78adc321ad1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 6c | 2,492$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.83 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,176$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 6c | 1,040$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.51 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84e7…73c4backed Yes | 5c | 739.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 4c | 707.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 10c | 666$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.58 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 21c | 617.32$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.12 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 8c | 589.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 11c | 559.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 8c | 545.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 48c | 504.02$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.39 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…e130backed Yes | 39c | 488.47$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.47 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 35c | 466.92$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.58 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 8c | 451.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…2fc3backed Yes | 15c | 449.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.68 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 57c | 448.08$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.74 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 23c | 429.96$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.09 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 10c | 423$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 5c | 422.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496d…a2f2backed Yes | 5c | 406.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 20c | 399.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 4c | 365$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 18c | 331.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 330.92$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 330.36$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.69 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 8c | 329.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 13c | 321.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 5c | 277.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 188 | 4.8%9 W · 179 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 40c | 267.95$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.05 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0123…d399backed Yes | 8c | 243.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 238.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 23c | 235$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 13c | 223.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…5c3abacked Yes | 7c | 217.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 7c | 216.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x800d…e1d0backed Yes | 46c | 216.87$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55bd…9bfabacked Yes | 8c | 208.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +225.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb704…0de9backed Yes | 23c | 205.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 14c | 201$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 67c | 200.18$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.94 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 8c | 197.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2132…9021backed Yes | 8c | 187.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked Yes | 16c | 180$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 34c | 169.87$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 49c | 169.06$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.36 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…4fcabacked Yes | 17c | 168.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 66c | 161.84$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.07 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 12c | 160.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 7c | 151.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 11c | 146.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 69c | 141.43$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 54c | 131.85$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.31 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 17c | 130.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 79c | 130.64$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 45c | 129.63$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 61c | 129.4$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa811…e28ebacked Yes | 34c | 124.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…b102backed Yes | 50c | 124.84$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.02 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 26c | 122.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 9c | 116.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 24c | 113.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b61…bf25backed Yes | 30c | 107.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…3af4backed Yes | 44c | 101.13$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8cba…e9dbbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 14c | 99.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe5…fe4abacked Yes | 35c | 87.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…b342backed Yes | 29c | 86.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290a…0994backed Yes | 38c | 84.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 37c | 81.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 67c | 80.32$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 78.54$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 20c | 74.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 36c | 71.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 31c | 69.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 75c | 62.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 36c | 60.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 59.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 38c | 56.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x864e…b2efbacked Yes | 44c | 55.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 80c | 54.36$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 48.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Yes | 53c | 44.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 45c | 44.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 80c | 42.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 70c | 42.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 46c | 41.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 31c | 40.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 70c | 38.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 38.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes | 50c | 35.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…ea77backed No | 79c | 34.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 34c | 32.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7c…dc18backed Yes | 38c | 31.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.