Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a8142069a61e49f39d4c70f16ed2cdc4280d4b46f788e57725b7ef293c52923
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 29c | 1,752$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.96 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 757.67$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.62 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 32c | 645.11$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.74 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 70c | 577.29$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.92 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 533.09$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 9c | 499.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 401$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.31 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 68c | 359.12$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.71 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed Yes | 43c | 352.23$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 33c | 347.53$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.71 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 338.9$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.47 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b3…e099backed Yes | 43c | 335.12$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 57c | 316.56$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.65 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 44c | 304.98$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.19 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 32c | 290$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.93 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 290$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.47 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 63c | 276.94$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.78 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 11c | 258.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 22c | 254.9$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 47c | 222.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.81 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 195.74$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.66 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 11c | 193.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 192$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.37 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 190.22$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.71 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 14c | 173.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 15c | 169.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 44c | 159.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 44c | 158.84$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.81 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 153.16$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…4fcabacked Yes | 38c | 153.14$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 146.9$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.46 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…e9f5backed Yes | 44c | 140.36$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 69c | 139.47$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…cb88backed Yes | 36c | 136.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 133.26$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…b102backed Yes | 16c | 125.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 46c | 122.27$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 11c | 120.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaad…255cbacked Yes | 49c | 119.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.53 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 57c | 115.88$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.83 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed No | 53c | 115$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044e…3158backed Yes | 14c | 110.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 57c | 105.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 100.02$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 75c | 95.56$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x010a…8176backed Yes | 44c | 91.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 91$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1d…98d0backed Yes | 18c | 90.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 29c | 89.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 89.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 89.27$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 63c | 84.72$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a69…3bcfbacked No | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 74c | 79.37$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 75.37$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 69c | 74.55$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 58c | 73.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 57c | 73.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 49c | 68.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 68.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d88…6adebacked Yes | 33c | 60.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 23c | 60.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb216…e994backed Yes | 35c | 58.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0a…3c94backed Yes | 47c | 57.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 46c | 55.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 52.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe5…fe4abacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…ad10backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 50c | 44.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4351…5463backed Yes | 42c | 44.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x864e…b2efbacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 42.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 64c | 42.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 36c | 37.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 42c | 36.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7474…3db1backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 72c | 31.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…f777backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 70c | 27.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55f9…b030backed Yes | 39c | 25.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 72c | 24.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 72c | 23.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x082b…ebe9backed Yes | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…88a2backed No | 70c | 20.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 58 | 84.5%49 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.