Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf18d2354293fd5b804447a064b39097fbbcc78bd6add0434fc4371a3ea34080f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 1,878$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.96 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 16c | 1,817$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.42 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 59c | 1,437$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.32 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 47c | 1,308$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.1 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 72c | 1,249$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.1 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 37c | 1,187$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.54 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 39c | 1,168$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.28 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 8c | 1,019$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 29c | 867.71$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.57 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 59c | 671.09$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.1 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 52c | 476.64$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.83 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd55b…9469backed Yes | 37c | 458.97$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.97 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 55c | 456.6$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.91 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed No | 76c | 443.35$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.94 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 53c | 439.27$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.65 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 36c | 435$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.51 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 418.65$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed No | 73c | 410.46$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 68c | 397.27$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.44 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 33c | 387.49$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.87 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 383.25$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 65c | 356.29$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.91 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 61c | 353.23$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.48 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 74c | 352.13$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.87 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 55c | 346.76$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.81 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 40c | 342.88$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.19 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 49c | 336.09$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.86 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 32c | 335.29$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.89 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 19c | 329.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.79 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 322.59$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.96 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 299$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.75 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 27c | 272.11$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.49 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 27c | 269.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.09 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 30c | 268.09$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.52 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 32c | 254.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 65c | 238.17$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.18 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 22c | 226$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.04 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 51c | 219.83$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.39 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…e130backed Yes | 64c | 211.97$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.49 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 57c | 202.47$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.76 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 16c | 199.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 59c | 195.37$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…e9f5backed Yes | 45c | 190.25$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.25 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 49c | 182.61$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.69 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 63c | 178.65$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.15 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 177.42$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…b102backed Yes | 48c | 169.74$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.13 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 168.5$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.61 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 12c | 163.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 12c | 159.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 33c | 153.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked No | 7c | 150.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 74c | 149.4$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…3af4backed Yes | 45c | 148.92$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.09 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 27c | 137.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.64 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 21c | 135.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 43c | 134.34$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.18 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed No | 13c | 133.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 41c | 130.69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 29c | 128.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.05 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 44c | 125.46$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 35c | 124.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.23 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044e…3158backed Yes | 52c | 121.84$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.91 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 46c | 121.46$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.63 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed Yes | 36c | 120$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12aa…37edbacked No | 50c | 117.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.45 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 113$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.69 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 21c | 110.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.43 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 45c | 110$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…4fcabacked Yes | 15c | 108.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 19c | 107.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.7 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 19c | 106.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 49c | 99.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 43c | 98.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 54c | 96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 93.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed No | 62c | 91.17$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 62c | 85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 36c | 81.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.39 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x695f…1b67backed No | 37c | 81.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c6…ec31backed Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.08 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 19cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked No | 61c | 79.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 47c | 78.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 38c | 77.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c41…8f2cbacked Yes | 64c | 77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 27c | 76.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28d0…f0b2backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 69.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 33c | 68.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 20c | 63.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.83 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02be…fb0ebacked Yes | 43c | 60.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 79c | 59.55$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.