Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18e3e2228ae1dd6222aee357e1bf333d63cca30d8dbcd3948b40631addd316c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,297
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,297 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1276…ec87backed No | 72c | 914.13$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.61 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 27c | 705.49$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.24 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 14c | 693.19$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.28 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 80c | 662.12$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.9 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 21c | 554.22$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.02 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 20c | 523.77$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.18 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…38e2backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 23c | 469$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.15 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 387.97$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.21 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 10c | 376.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 14c | 336.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 5c | 327.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 74c | 298.13$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.6 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9447…48d6backed Yes | 5c | 284.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4cf2backed No | 68c | 257.82$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.01 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x864e…b2efbacked Yes | 26c | 242.45$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 73c | 227.86$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 225.92$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x010a…8176backed Yes | 19c | 212.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa35…bda4backed No | 75c | 199.26$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 29c | 198$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.07 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 194.6$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.36 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 14c | 177.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 24c | 172.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d88…6adebacked Yes | 15c | 166.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 27c | 161.45$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…e9f5backed Yes | 35c | 153.73$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…4fcabacked Yes | 16c | 141.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 11c | 136.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fb…b7b5backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 21c | 101.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed Yes | 18c | 101.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9b…7c8fbacked No | 74c | 100.01$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 23c | 92.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…32babacked Yes | 26c | 88.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 77c | 76.89$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 23c | 70.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4351…5463backed Yes | 26c | 55.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b2…f93dbacked Yes | 31c | 46.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6458…f826backed No | 76c | 43.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 79c | 39.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c4…2181backed No | 79c | 39.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…ea77backed No | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 78c | 29.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 29.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 25.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 75c | 25.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 73c | 22.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 71c | 21.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 75c | 20.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 72c | 20.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…7466backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 78c | 18.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.