Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FC Milsami Orhei vs. FK Velež Mostar end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f5cabe5fb71cfef93974fae859f2d5aa2c7838dd08472759b5eca565a5eb5eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 31c | 15,000$4,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,645.55 | 212 | 37.3%79 W · 133 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 69c | 7,341$5,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,275.6 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 58c | 6,995$4,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,916.79 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 40c | 4,227$1,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,546.88 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 59c | 3,686$2,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,156.99 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed No | 52c | 3,408$1,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,639.2 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +69%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 70c | 1,924$1,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,346.94 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 56c | 1,690$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.3 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c96…959fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,106$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…f46abacked No | 69c | 999.98$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.99 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 69c | 999.94$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.98 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Yes | 31c | 967.74$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 57c | 823.59$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.47 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 62c | 721.54$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.64 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Yes | 39c | 596$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 50c | 595$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.85 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Yes | 35c | 563.8$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.33 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 49c | 431$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.04 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162c…6c47backed Yes | 43c | 402.46$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.06 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 69c | 400$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 200 | 50%100 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3790…5e8bbacked Yes | 30c | 340$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 69c | 319.67$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.31 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 70c | 304.99$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 59c | 196.08$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.01 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…bbbabacked No | 49c | 184.84$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.27 | 69 | 73.9%51 W · 18 L | +19.0wins | +0.28per pick | 46cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked No | 69c | 164.22$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 51c | 155.57$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.13 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…719abacked Yes | 31c | 154.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06f…11f3backed Yes | 14c | 143$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 69c | 103.45$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Yes | 30c | 103.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 170 | 59.4%101 W · 69 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Yes | 11c | 99.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 146 | 30.1%44 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7984…638abacked Yes | 29c | 91.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 49c | 89.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 69c | 79.12$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 70c | 76.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 164 | 43.9%72 W · 92 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…d55ebacked No | 66c | 63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 192 | 50.5%97 W · 95 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 45.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed No | 72c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…56bcbacked Yes | 31c | 38.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed No | 69c | 36.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 42c | 34.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked No | 69c | 28.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3113backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…226ebacked Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…1525backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 58c | 21.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 239 | 51.5%123 W · 116 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed No | 71c | 16.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2568…ef92backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Milsami Orhei vs. FK Velež Mostar end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Milsami Orhei win on 2026-07-16?No won
- Will FK Velež Mostar win on 2026-07-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.