NBA · resolved market
Trail Blazers vs. Celtics: O/U 225.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f6b50fe8251bae24067597ef2b58ac028c495405c320154e2bef22c8364db29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,601
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 7,339$3,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,656.51 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Over | 51c | 6,767$3,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,451.16 | 132 | 39.4%52 W · 80 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Under | 51c | 6,000$3,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,910.91 | 458 | 50.4%231 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8758…01e0backed Over | 53c | 4,000$2,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,118.34 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 49c | 3,878$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Over | 48c | 3,206$1,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,538.88 | 215 | 49.8%107 W · 108 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 49c | 3,185$1,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.45 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 50c | 3,180$1,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,591.21 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Over | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 49c | 2,089$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.56 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 1,914$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.72 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 51c | 1,144$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.2 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Under | 53c | 1,088$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.38 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 48c | 486.3$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.42 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 47c | 449.56$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.55 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 51c | 407.62$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.96 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 49c | 399$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.49 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 46c | 233.26$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.05 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 51c | 223$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.27 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…c706backed Over | 49c | 223$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.27 | 149 | 49.7%74 W · 75 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Under | 49c | 205$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Over | 45c | 184$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 48c | 123.71$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.33 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…811bbacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Over | 48c | 101.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc708…4ebcbacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 49c | 73.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 48c | 72.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 48c | 70.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…620ebacked Under | 50c | 62.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 311 | 55%171 W · 140 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 48c | 45.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 50c | 30.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…e949backed Over | 48c | 24.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 49c | 23.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trail Blazers vs. Celtics: O/U 225.5this page
- Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Deni Avdija: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Deni Avdija: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Shaedon Sharpe: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-8.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)Trail Blazers won
- Toumani Camara: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Trail Blazers vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Trail Blazers vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Trail Blazers vs. Celtics: O/U 223.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Celtics: O/U 226.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.