NBA · resolved market

Spread: Celtics (-7.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x723386e99e32e795003e72f04ffed897014680158111808af1e4832bad247d20

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Celticsof Celtics, Trail Blazers
Resolved: Jan 27, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $126,885
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $128,237

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,885 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x93ab…9723backed Trail Blazers	50c	38,520$19,260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19,260.14	603	51.4%310 W · 293 L	+16.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Celtics	50c	34,566$17,237 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17,328.59	404	46.8%189 W · 215 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Celtics	50c	24,626$12,313 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,312.78	1,204	55.3%666 W · 538 L	+52.0wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Celtics	52c	20,032$10,504 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,527.82	458	50.4%231 W · 227 L	+11.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8eb4…d892backed Trail Blazers	49c	15,000$7,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,399.99	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22bd…5211backed Trail Blazers	0c	10,046$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Trail Blazers	45c	9,869$4,486 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,485.98	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Celtics	55c	8,142$4,445 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,697.08	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Trail Blazers	50c	8,000$4,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,000	257	53.7%138 W · 119 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers	47c	5,463$2,578 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,577.68	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Trail Blazers	49c	4,882$2,381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,380.67	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Celtics	53c	3,797$2,014 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,782.53	877	50.2%440 W · 437 L	-19.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0940…3640backed Trail Blazers	50c	2,182$1,091 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,091.12	87	48.3%42 W · 45 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Trail Blazers	47c	2,092$986 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$986.26	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Celtics	53c	2,011$1,060 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$951.42	415	53.3%221 W · 194 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x266b…8da2backed Trail Blazers	51c	1,958$999 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$998.69	57	38.6%22 W · 35 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd56d…bd7dbacked Celtics	54c	1,800$972 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$828	86	47.7%41 W · 45 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Trail Blazers	45c	1,777$802 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$802.1	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Celtics	53c	1,700$893 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$807.37	1,908	54.5%1,040 W · 868 L	+53.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa62d…92e0backed Trail Blazers	50c	1,632$816 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$816	100	49%49 W · 51 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cfc…4f30backed Trail Blazers	51c	1,500$765 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$765	87	44.8%39 W · 48 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Celtics	50c	1,394$700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$693.96	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Celtics	56c	1,340$750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$589.72	653	39.5%258 W · 395 L	-24.6wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc37…2f65backed Trail Blazers	46c	1,087$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	416	49.8%207 W · 209 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Trail Blazers	46c	1,062$486 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$486.18	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1a94…822cbacked Trail Blazers	50c	1,030$515 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$515	213	55.9%119 W · 94 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabde…d41fbacked Trail Blazers	50c	910.65$454 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$454.33	419	47.7%200 W · 219 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Trail Blazers	46c	878.11$402 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$402.4	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Celtics	53c	859.3$455 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$403.87	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa5a9…45ffbacked Trail Blazers	47c	844.4$397 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$396.87	238	50%119 W · 119 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d0f…f3e6backed Celtics	55c	800$440 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$360	66	59.1%39 W · 27 L	+7.2wins	+0.11per pick	48cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbf26…6fe2backed Trail Blazers	46c	697.83$321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321	324	50.6%164 W · 160 L	-11.7wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Trail Blazers	46c	650$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf09f…8049backed Celtics	50c	600$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300	666	45.9%306 W · 360 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Celtics	50c	500$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250	517	53.8%278 W · 239 L	+11.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Trail Blazers	45c	500$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe6c…4f6fbacked Trail Blazers	51c	490.2$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	54cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe711…3dd2backed Celtics	55c	463.64$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208.64	128	55.5%71 W · 57 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Trail Blazers	47c	406.79$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.41	432	44%190 W · 242 L	-18.3wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed Trail Blazers	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	259	51.4%133 W · 126 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9069…9c14backed Celtics	50c	300$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150	145	57.2%83 W · 62 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Trail Blazers	46c	247.5$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.7	666	46.8%312 W · 354 L	-29.6wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-11%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ed4…620ebacked Celtics	55c	244.44$134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.92	311	55%171 W · 140 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x05f9…f351backed Trail Blazers	50c	234$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.86	410	48.3%198 W · 212 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Trail Blazers	46c	213.16$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.05	156	49.4%77 W · 79 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Celtics	51c	200$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98	841	50.3%423 W · 418 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7f6…5ac8backed Celtics	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	86	45.3%39 W · 47 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Trail Blazers	46c	200$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92	807	44.1%356 W · 451 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Celtics	51c	158.01$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.42	634	47.5%301 W · 333 L	-19.8wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Trail Blazers	46c	136.06$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.29	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Celtics	50c	121.21$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.61	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a09…76e9backed Trail Blazers	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	74	50%37 W · 37 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd85…6a32backed Trail Blazers	46c	96.88$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.25	118	49.2%58 W · 60 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Trail Blazers	45c	95$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.75	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Trail Blazers	47c	94.35$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.94	397	36.3%144 W · 253 L	-27.0wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd236…a65ebacked Trail Blazers	50c	81.93$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.93	522	46.6%243 W · 279 L	-7.9wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce3e…2f24backed Trail Blazers	51c	78.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	250	56.8%142 W · 108 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Celtics	51c	67.2$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.93	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Celtics	66c	64$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.76	1,522	49.6%755 W · 767 L	+27.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9985…9b14backed Celtics	51c	62.2$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.48	87	43.7%38 W · 49 L	-6.2wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a31…152cbacked Trail Blazers	51c	61.67$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.45	484	51.2%248 W · 236 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Trail Blazers	47c	60$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.45	689	40.2%277 W · 412 L	-54.9wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe0c7…5861backed Trail Blazers	51c	58.82$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	516	51.2%264 W · 252 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbe2…6158backed Celtics	53c	56.6$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.6	332	49.7%165 W · 167 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked Trail Blazers	46c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	432	46.1%199 W · 233 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc869…bc8dbacked Trail Blazers	51c	49.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	96	42.7%41 W · 55 L	-9.4wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7ed6…bbabbacked Celtics	55c	45.45$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.45	328	53%174 W · 154 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Trail Blazers	47c	44.42$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.87	1,264	45.8%579 W · 685 L	-10.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3ba…33b9backed Trail Blazers	50c	40.4$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.2	116	44%51 W · 65 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a90…8218backed Celtics	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	118	54.2%64 W · 54 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Trail Blazers	46c	39.13$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	509	48.5%247 W · 262 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb4c3…f427backed Trail Blazers	51c	37.66$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.08	115	46.1%53 W · 62 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b1f…4eebbacked Celtics	54c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.8	114	64.9%74 W · 40 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	62cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbff8…7073backed Trail Blazers	46c	23.43$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	108	42.6%46 W · 62 L	-7.4wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7eaa…3ea5backed Celtics	53c	23.15$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.77	226	55.3%125 W · 101 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Celtics	55c	22.25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.01	357	47.1%168 W · 189 L	-8.6wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x239b…f8bfbacked Trail Blazers	46c	22$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.02	323	52.6%170 W · 153 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e78…70c7backed Trail Blazers	48c	21.21$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.18	329	52.9%174 W · 155 L	+9.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40a6…a17ebacked Trail Blazers	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	121	48.8%59 W · 62 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fbd…6ffebacked Trail Blazers	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	90	42.2%38 W · 52 L	-6.2wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Celtics (-7.5)this page
Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 5.5No won
Deni Avdija: Points O/U 22.5No won
Deni Avdija: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
Shaedon Sharpe: Points O/U 21.5No won
Spread: Celtics (-8.5)Trail Blazers won
Spread: Celtics (-9.5)Trail Blazers won
Toumani Camara: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
Trail Blazers vs. CelticsCeltics won
Trail Blazers vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
Trail Blazers vs. Celtics: O/U 223.5Under won
Trail Blazers vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5Under won
Trail Blazers vs. Celtics: O/U 225.5Under won
Trail Blazers vs. Celtics: O/U 226.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Celtics (-7.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event