NBA · resolved market
Trail Blazers vs. Celtics: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef736aa0a0234a359dc93ba6cc7b86de15389bfc62d4db826832421dd3d98679
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Over | 50c | 32,472$16,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,235.96 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a43…565fbacked Under | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Under | 51c | 7,553$3,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,705.2 | 458 | 50.4%231 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 54c | 6,000$3,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,760 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb48f…d015backed Under | 50c | 4,989$2,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,494.4 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 4,031$1,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,904.67 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Over | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470 | 379 | 44.3%168 W · 211 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Under | 50c | 2,991$1,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,495.65 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 51c | 2,437$1,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190.3 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 320 | 51.9%166 W · 154 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 1,847$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.77 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Under | 52c | 1,071$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.61 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…b6ffbacked Under | 52c | 1,005$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.4 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Under | 52c | 795$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.6 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…1769backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 321 | 50.8%163 W · 158 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 50c | 543.8$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.93 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 53c | 505$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.87 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 50c | 389.58$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.79 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 296$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.7 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 44c | 135.37$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 85.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 49c | 80.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6c…fe22backed Under | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…620ebacked Under | 53c | 72.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 311 | 55%171 W · 140 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Under | 60c | 41.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 55c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 46c | 30.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked Under | 51c | 27.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 69 | 65.2%45 W · 24 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Under | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 48c | 25.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…b163backed Under | 55c | 22.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…3ea5backed Under | 58c | 22.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 51c | 20.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trail Blazers vs. Celtics: O/U 226.5this page
- Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Deni Avdija: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Deni Avdija: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Shaedon Sharpe: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-8.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)Trail Blazers won
- Toumani Camara: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Trail Blazers vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Trail Blazers vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Trail Blazers vs. Celtics: O/U 223.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Celtics: O/U 225.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.