TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Celtics (-9.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Trail Blazersof Celtics, Trail Blazers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$57,182
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$60,112

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,182 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb589…33d4backed Celtics4c7,303$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.9135326.6%94 W · 259 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Trail Blazers57c6,270$3,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,719.9276746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Celtics48c5,383$2,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,558.928,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Celtics47c5,061$2,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,381.322,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Celtics44c3,821$1,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,664.59,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Celtics2c3,444$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.8829810.4%31 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+230.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Trail Blazers56c3,121$1,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,378.544,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Trail Blazers54c2,300$1,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,05845850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x899a…2a22backed Trail Blazers57c1,747$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.7417241.9%72 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Trail Blazers60c1,670$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.5427158.3%158 W · 113 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc869…8a6ebacked Trail Blazers55c1,647$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.2712951.9%67 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Trail Blazers53c1,333$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.712,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Trail Blazers53c1,249$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.921,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Trail Blazers25c900$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67944821.4%96 W · 352 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04d2…4c2cbacked Celtics44c840.91$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37017454%94 W · 80 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9551…888ebacked Celtics44c799$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Trail Blazers52c671$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.081,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Trail Blazers53c590$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.463,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Trail Blazers52c568.93$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.093,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Trail Blazers53c528.3$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.366046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Celtics59c469.77$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.223,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Trail Blazers57c461.67$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.1717233.7%58 W · 114 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Trail Blazers53c445.93$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.344,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed Celtics69c427.65$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.8724846.8%116 W · 132 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Trail Blazers56c420.11$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.1515649.4%77 W · 79 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Celtics42c399.98$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.9984150.3%423 W · 418 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Celtics60c388.03$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.963,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Trail Blazers52c375.57$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.272,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Trail Blazers55c363.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.641,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe53a…a32ebacked Trail Blazers56c305$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Trail Blazers56c300$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1323,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3698…208abacked Trail Blazers56c266$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Trail Blazers38c260.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.0881845.7%374 W · 444 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf407…d2abbacked Trail Blazers56c228$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Celtics47c226$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.2240146.9%188 W · 213 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x708a…1f12backed Celtics45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa924…b1b9backed Trail Blazers43c212.5$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.514636.3%53 W · 93 L+16.4wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+58.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x40da…0b85backed Celtics48c207.29$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.58232.9%27 W · 55 L-15.2wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-39.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Celtics57c204.22$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.412,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b15…fa73backed Trail Blazers67c201$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.758651.2%44 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Celtics48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Trail Blazers53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6836649.5%181 W · 185 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Celtics29c174.82$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5683039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Trail Blazers54c160.37$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.771,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x187b…8848backed Trail Blazers56c159.99$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.472250.6%365 W · 357 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Celtics41c146.33$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Trail Blazers38c144.02$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.8139736.3%144 W · 253 L-27.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Celtics62c134.66$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.972,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked Trail Blazers59c121.8$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.9433554.6%183 W · 152 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2d…76e3backed Trail Blazers42c120.22$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.222835.7%10 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x00fe…eff7backed Celtics46c118$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.288552.9%45 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Trail Blazers52c115$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.22,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a64…5cacbacked Celtics47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b39…3234backed Trail Blazers62c105$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.97349.3%36 W · 37 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48cf…c7dfbacked Trail Blazers58c103.45$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4536453%193 W · 171 L-17.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Celtics44c103$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.321,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Trail Blazers53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4780744.1%356 W · 451 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb59c…e944backed Trail Blazers19c99.9$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.924447.7%21 W · 23 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb81d…c6c0backed Celtics45c92$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.49360.2%56 W · 37 L+10.4wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+22.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x46df…b057backed Trail Blazers55c90.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9121164.5%136 W · 75 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf0ff…a806backed Celtics45c88.89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4016030.6%49 W · 111 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Trail Blazers58c86.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.2161056.1%342 W · 268 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fb5…cabdbacked Trail Blazers57c85.96$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.961346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Trail Blazers54c77.31$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.4443244%190 W · 242 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Trail Blazers29c76$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.665,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Celtics80c71$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4538540.3%155 W · 230 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Celtics45c68.47$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.682,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc6c…fe22backed Trail Blazers59c67.8$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.87454.1%40 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb442…bed7backed Celtics74c67.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012652.4%66 W · 60 L-0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Trail Blazers50c66.93$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.723,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f7a…6563backed Celtics44c65$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.65253.8%28 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7f7…06c5backed Celtics44c64.22$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5517750.8%90 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c9e…bba8backed Celtics80c62$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.464755.3%26 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Celtics46c58.61$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.961,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Trail Blazers52c57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.362,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Celtics53c55.56$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.455,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb14…0da7backed Trail Blazers22c54.35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.356121.3%13 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e40…cf85backed Trail Blazers38c52.05$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0516745.5%76 W · 91 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Trail Blazers56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2210542.9%45 W · 60 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x65f9…4dd7backed Trail Blazers22c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395932.2%19 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eaa…3ea5backed Trail Blazers55c48.52$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0222655.3%125 W · 101 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf3…f535backed Trail Blazers55c48.17$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6724332.9%80 W · 163 L-22.7wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-19.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked Trail Blazers55c46$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.733360.4%201 W · 132 L+17.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa5f…3de3backed Celtics43c45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.357247.2%34 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe178…e480backed Celtics44c41.68$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.342744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb53c…c76ebacked Trail Blazers37c40.6$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.648740.7%198 W · 289 L-13.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3ba…33b9backed Trail Blazers54c40.4$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3911644%51 W · 65 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Trail Blazers53c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.837253.5%199 W · 173 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b79…a497backed Trail Blazers53c38.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.888149.4%40 W · 41 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7631…9cc3backed Trail Blazers57c35.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.091428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-44.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1ceb…7011backed Trail Blazers57c35.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.091361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9487…54bbbacked Celtics43c35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0516935.5%60 W · 109 L-16.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-22.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xddf5…aaa3backed Celtics44c34.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159844.9%44 W · 54 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbff8…7073backed Trail Blazers55c33.11$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9610842.6%46 W · 62 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Celtics36c30.84$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.031,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd85…6a32backed Celtics47c30.36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2111849.2%58 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa68d…e03bbacked Trail Blazers55c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.55747.4%27 W · 30 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x66f7…2894backed Trail Blazers54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.82958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x759e…4d68backed Trail Blazers41c28.93$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.07757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+55.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x07a4…be3abacked Trail Blazers54c28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.883161.3%19 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.