NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Magic: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f8e01ae1f7b5fb12f3f97d7da74c43912ab076799c37aedc623811e223528fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Over | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 354 | 50.8%180 W · 174 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea27…19c6backed Under | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Under | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 49c | 263.54$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.53 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 56c | 224$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.44 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 44c | 223.85$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.29 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…afaabacked Under | 13c | 188.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +6.8wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 154.75$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.46 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed Under | 56c | 95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0897…a901backed Under | 80c | 89.4$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…c18ebacked Under | 56c | 82.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 21c | 78.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 57c | 77$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Under | 59c | 76.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 207 | 62.3%129 W · 78 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Over | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 210 | 56.2%118 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 59c | 68.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Under | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…c817backed Under | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…1f57backed Over | 44c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…7959backed Over | 44c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…59c4backed Over | 45c | 31.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…6d13backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Under | 72c | 28.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 184 | 40.8%75 W · 109 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 41c | 27.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Under | 58c | 25.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 421 | 43.7%184 W · 237 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 45c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 55c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 249 | 55.8%139 W · 110 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Magic: O/U 237.5this page
- Nuggets vs. MagicMagic won
- Nuggets vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Magic: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Magic: O/U 234.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Magic: O/U 235.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Magic: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Magic won
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Magic won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.