NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Magic: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cb7b58f133df954c21091180a2432ac3d7b5a4fea4468470ecbf4e5733cc8fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $157,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $160,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca1…dd13backed Under | 54c | 145,040$78,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78,321.59 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 46c | 96,798$44,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52,270.97 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 11,386$5,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,149.85 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 46c | 11,162$5,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,027.48 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 10,110$4,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,459.4 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea27…19c6backed Under | 53c | 6,773$3,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,587.59 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Over | 47c | 6,563$3,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,478.39 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Over | 46c | 2,528$1,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365.01 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 46c | 2,500$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 46c | 2,042$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.58 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Over | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Over | 46c | 1,913$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.04 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 179 | 31.8%57 W · 122 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 46c | 1,132$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.77 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 54c | 999.97$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.99 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 46c | 762.79$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.94 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 46c | 588$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.52 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 46c | 389$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.06 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Over | 49c | 383.13$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.63 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 224$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.25 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Under | 51c | 172$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.32 | 184 | 40.8%75 W · 109 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 53c | 129.52$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Over | 49c | 114.8$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.55 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Under | 54c | 109$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6d…d25abacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…3f14backed Over | 49c | 95.65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Under | 54c | 85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x474b…c5b1backed Over | 49c | 74.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Under | 48c | 50.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080f…c226backed Over | 46c | 48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 49c | 47.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…09debacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 154 | 40.3%62 W · 92 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 34c | 42.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a81…b783backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7689…dd2bbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce0…e809backed Over | 56c | 38.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa852…d55dbacked Over | 47c | 37.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5373…e46bbacked Over | 49c | 37.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…b6a4backed Over | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +26%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f8…256ebacked Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67ec…06aabacked Over | 46c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…93f4backed Over | 46c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…0c60backed Over | 46c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91dc…9dcebacked Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -5.7wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfb75…bc16backed Over | 46c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Magic: O/U 236.5this page
- Nuggets vs. MagicMagic won
- Nuggets vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Magic: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Magic: O/U 234.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Magic: O/U 235.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Magic: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Magic won
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Magic won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.