NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4c216e348d3ad54533c2b4a91b1b7c1d869ac0d5167848d1cab9263e5610ab2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Nuggets, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Magic | 49c | 10,061$4,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,172.31 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 52c | 6,886$3,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,553.97 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Nuggets | 51c | 3,932$2,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,005.41 | 566 | 46.5%263 W · 303 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 53c | 1,445$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.14 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Magic | 50c | 1,259$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.5 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Magic | 55c | 1,006$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.26 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Magic | 50c | 724$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Nuggets | 44c | 700$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…2af1backed Nuggets | 43c | 692.98$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.98 | 214 | 46.7%100 W · 114 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nuggets | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Nuggets | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Magic | 57c | 365.87$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.19 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Nuggets | 49c | 267$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.83 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Magic | 56c | 151$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.44 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b20…7c67backed Magic | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Magic | 56c | 138$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.72 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Magic | 53c | 134.42$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Nuggets | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Nuggets | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Magic | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 263 | 39.5%104 W · 159 L | -13.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Magic | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e5…f42fbacked Nuggets | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Nuggets | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Magic | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Magic | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Nuggets | 56c | 85.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Nuggets | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Magic | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Nuggets | 35c | 76.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…dedebacked Magic | 51c | 72.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Magic | 55c | 57.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42bf…30f7backed Nuggets | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed Nuggets | 44c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…0aa5backed Nuggets | 44c | 47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Nuggets | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x058a…ed5cbacked Magic | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6471backed Nuggets | 44c | 41.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Magic | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 288 | 56.9%164 W · 124 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…bcb1backed Nuggets | 44c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88d0…524cbacked Nuggets | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf340…6224backed Nuggets | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x96ae…89d9backed Nuggets | 44c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Nuggets | 48c | 30.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Magic | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Nuggets | 51c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad2…d17fbacked Nuggets | 44c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Magic | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa852…d55dbacked Nuggets | 54c | 23.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Magic | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)this page
- Nuggets vs. MagicMagic won
- Nuggets vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Magic: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Magic: O/U 234.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Magic: O/U 235.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Magic: O/U 236.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Magic: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Magic won
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.