TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Magicof Nuggets, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$480,706
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$481,216

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $480,706 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc2e7…be51backed Magic51c335,361$171,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164,281.2810049%49 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Nuggets49c200,000$98,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98,00026253.8%141 W · 121 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe73e…74febacked Nuggets52c81,159$41,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,898.661471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+46.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Magic48c75,337$36,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,905.862,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Nuggets49c50,000$24,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,5001,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6576…6cc5backed Nuggets55c30,306$16,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,668.32450%12 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc480…0caabacked Magic45c30,306$13,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,665.0513249.2%65 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nuggets49c21,045$10,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,3025,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets50c15,664$7,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,802.099,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Nuggets49c13,703$6,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,714.542,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Nuggets49c11,000$5,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,3902,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Nuggets52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,2001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Magic48c9,888$4,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,141.7650653.2%269 W · 237 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Nuggets51c4,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,039.9921446.7%100 W · 114 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7634…1b96backed Nuggets52c3,847$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.1824051.3%123 W · 117 L-0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Nuggets49c3,000$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,46044654.3%242 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Nuggets49c3,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47010057%57 W · 43 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe86c…2d4abacked Magic48c2,994$1,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,556.75560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Nuggets52c2,306$1,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,205.054,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Nuggets53c2,159$1,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,135.7135749.6%177 W · 180 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Magic49c2,031$996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.8959347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Magic49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02036248.9%177 W · 185 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Nuggets53c1,877$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00021852.8%115 W · 103 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Magic48c1,800$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9361,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Nuggets49c1,598$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.652,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Nuggets49c1,500$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7352,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Nuggets49c1,429$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.211,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x273c…7a42backed Nuggets49c1,194$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.923256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x891d…dd26backed Magic49c820$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.28351.8%43 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Magic47c638$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.286,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Nuggets49c600$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29421858.7%128 W · 90 L+17.1wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Magic48c585.28$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.3589050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5a3c…93d7backed Nuggets52c576.9$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9940346.2%186 W · 217 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x762e…cc8ebacked Magic48c425$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+32.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b46…121dbacked Nuggets52c384.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20031551.7%163 W · 152 L-1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8bd…df80backed Nuggets52c384.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012146.3%56 W · 65 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Nuggets49c339.46$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.3448054.2%260 W · 220 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03f9…f78ebacked Nuggets52c288.46$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15013339.1%52 W · 81 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Nuggets52c276.75$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14549852.4%261 W · 237 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e57…21cbbacked Magic49c255.1$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.15655.4%31 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Nuggets49c240$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.61,02848.5%499 W · 529 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Nuggets49c240$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.634451.5%177 W · 167 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Magic49c233$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.813,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Magic48c221.15$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1152,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Nuggets51c199$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.491,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe832…7abbbacked Nuggets52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005455.6%30 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf13b…9ef9backed Nuggets51c192.14$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9921753%115 W · 102 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87e8…5e6ebacked Nuggets51c119.61$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6116743.7%73 W · 94 L-16.6wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-18.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked Nuggets51c117.65$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6053539.6%212 W · 323 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Nuggets49c108$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9287647.5%416 W · 460 L+3.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Magic50c106.67$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.788,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Nuggets52c105.77$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551,44458.1%839 W · 605 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15e3…009fbacked Nuggets52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5237357.4%214 W · 159 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7180…bdbabacked Nuggets51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015657.7%90 W · 66 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae4d…fc45backed Nuggets55c90.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011626.7%31 W · 85 L-16.8wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-36.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Nuggets49c90.52$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3570147.8%335 W · 366 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Nuggets49c90$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.162349.6%309 W · 314 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Nuggets49c90$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.171747.6%341 W · 376 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9061…9510backed Magic48c84$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.687162%44 W · 27 L+8.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+22%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Magic47c77.32$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.981,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d48…b9a1backed Nuggets54c75$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.519254.7%105 W · 87 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Nuggets54c74.07$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c3…f427backed Magic51c72.2$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.411546.1%53 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Nuggets49c72$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2831754.6%173 W · 144 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Nuggets49c72$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2834254.1%185 W · 157 L+16.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7e9…1ed6backed Nuggets51c69.5$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2620%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Magic48c67.21$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.933,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3888…0755backed Magic50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3025058.4%146 W · 104 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Nuggets52c57.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Magic45c54.12$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7776247.1%359 W · 403 L+2.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Nuggets49c54$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4634053.8%183 W · 157 L+16.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Nuggets49c54$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4633147.4%157 W · 174 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x110d…cd01backed Nuggets52c48.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2534556.2%194 W · 151 L+17.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaba0…3153backed Magic48c48.08$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Nuggets49c45$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0520456.4%115 W · 89 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x691b…d267backed Nuggets50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4234…6b87backed Nuggets51c39.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204055%22 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6533…0f9cbacked Nuggets52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2049358.6%289 W · 204 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Nuggets53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060346.4%280 W · 323 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97de…15eabacked Nuggets52c37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.244151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6931…89cabacked Nuggets55c36.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010248%49 W · 53 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Nuggets49c36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6427350.9%139 W · 134 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Nuggets49c36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6432649.7%162 W · 164 L-1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Nuggets49c36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6431250.3%157 W · 155 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Nuggets49c36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6427251.1%139 W · 133 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Nuggets49c36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6436651.4%188 W · 178 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Nuggets49c36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6431852.2%166 W · 152 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Nuggets49c36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6427353.8%147 W · 126 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Nuggets49c36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6431551.1%161 W · 154 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Nuggets50c36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1812545.6%57 W · 68 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Magic44c35.71$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849d…29ecbacked Nuggets56c35.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4da0…8bb8backed Magic50c33.12$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.35per pick51cpaid+129.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x021a…b2d7backed Nuggets74c29.73$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222733.3%9 W · 18 L-4.0wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-36%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x51fd…6c7ebacked Nuggets52c28.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-19.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x51bd…bc56backed Nuggets52c28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.563652.8%19 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f3…ff5ebacked Nuggets51c27.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa204…e66fbacked Nuggets49c27$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.238755.2%48 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Nuggets52c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1337253.5%199 W · 173 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Nuggets49c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.252,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.