NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Magic: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x077ce941128ef625ab7f7b7d1491f756163edf3d7a657e0ab6eb8da112cac063
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Under | 50c | 69,000$34,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,500 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Over | 50c | 28,370$14,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,185 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf379…ea83backed Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…24f8backed Over | 50c | 6,840$3,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,420 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 51c | 6,000$3,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,940 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 5,888$2,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,003.23 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 49c | 4,505$2,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,196.95 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6a…1827backed Over | 50c | 4,250$2,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,124.65 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 50c | 3,630$1,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,815 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e02…c0b3backed Under | 51c | 3,390$1,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,729.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca2…79abbacked Under | 52c | 3,335$1,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,734 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.99 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 50c | 2,984$1,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500.78 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Over | 53c | 2,533$1,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,191.44 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -14.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Over | 52c | 1,827$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.77 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0f…45c3backed Over | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 51c | 1,176$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.74 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 1,175$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.77 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e22…88a5backed Under | 72c | 1,150$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Over | 44c | 1,014$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.79 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 47c | 773.73$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.78 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Under | 50c | 599.69$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.85 | 406 | 48%195 W · 211 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed Over | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe86c…2d4abacked Under | 51c | 353.12$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d75…8b3abacked Under | 70c | 295.68$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.6 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed Over | 70c | 268.21$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.37 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 33c | 235.28$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.4 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf2…740bbacked Over | 52c | 213.46$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.46 | 180 | 40.6%73 W · 107 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…c5eebacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…c744backed Over | 66c | 159.11$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.1 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 35c | 149.64$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.63 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 34c | 118.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…59c4backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…ff79backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Under | 52c | 98.37$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Under | 49c | 84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…2c42backed Under | 49c | 79.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…4083backed Under | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 173 | 41%71 W · 102 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 47c | 69.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5cb3backed Under | 49c | 65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0ba4backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc02…f89cbacked Over | 40c | 49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 139 | 47.5%66 W · 73 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Over | 32c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…1f15backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 41c | 39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34e5…7dd4backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c17…0458backed Over | 50c | 36.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 171 | 53.2%91 W · 80 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 50c | 35.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5931…08cbbacked Over | 51c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72e4…0369backed Over | 50c | 32.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Under | 64c | 28.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d12…bef1backed Over | 79c | 25.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658a…3b89backed Over | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 83 | 68.7%57 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa9…7097backed Over | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -6.6wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce0…e809backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Magic: O/U 234.5this page
- Nuggets vs. MagicMagic won
- Nuggets vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Magic: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Magic: O/U 235.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Magic: O/U 236.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Magic: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Magic won
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Magic won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.