Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60433a232bfbc320ce3c46f3938114198e9ade7aef870d54fef836279358109c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 71c | 704.97$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.97 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 32c | 579.69$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 65c | 500.28$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.87 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 42c | 500$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.49 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 19c | 491.27$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.52 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 22c | 264.91$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 33c | 214$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.62 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 29c | 212.89$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.96 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 63c | 205.15$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.54 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 73c | 199.7$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 34c | 188.65$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 28c | 181.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 38c | 170.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.01 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 45c | 165$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 70c | 127$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 79c | 123.46$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 29c | 118.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…8690backed Yes | 63c | 111.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 47c | 103.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 47c | 103.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…052abacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 41c | 94.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 67c | 74.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 38c | 69.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc20…c5dbbacked Yes | 58c | 68.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 66c | 62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…224ebacked Yes | 68c | 54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 58c | 52.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 25c | 49.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 72c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 66c | 45.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 58c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 47c | 32.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…0ad4backed Yes | 70c | 29.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa03c…9a81backed Yes | 66c | 25.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 75c | 25.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 65c | 20.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 72c | 19.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.