Premier League · resolved market
Everton FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x605e37de8d795cee084f5661c8326a726325cd6c4328354f5141f7410f391c20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf816…3578backed Over | 28c | 8,891$2,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,490 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Over | 28c | 6,561$1,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,816.36 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 73c | 6,044$4,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,606.64 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 4,949$3,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,359.82 | 6,217 | 45.6%2,834 W · 3,383 L | -33.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 72c | 1,141$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.48 | 722 | 49.9%360 W · 362 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 18c | 983.91$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.7 | 4,874 | 41.5%2,021 W · 2,853 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…e6c3backed Under | 74c | 880$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.8 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…eca8backed Over | 28c | 589.29$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 174 | 28.2%49 W · 125 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 73c | 513.99$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.78 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83d…3324backed Under | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Under | 71c | 391.07$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.41 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Under | 76c | 287.67$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.19 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Under | 79c | 281.01$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.01 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 73c | 250$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 179 | 55.3%99 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Under | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 114 | 43.9%50 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 72c | 160$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 351 | 57.8%203 W · 148 L | +18.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…f967backed Over | 27c | 130$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 354 | 28.5%101 W · 253 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…3e2bbacked Under | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Over | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 114 | 20.2%23 W · 91 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Over | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 181 | 24.9%45 W · 136 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 24c | 90.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 241 | 58.1%140 W · 101 L | +34.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1170…8398backed Over | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…22c4backed Under | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae04…7411backed Under | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 22c | 46.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 401 | 50.1%201 W · 200 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…4245backed Over | 28c | 45.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…65e0backed Under | 79c | 43.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Under | 74c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a5…7e15backed Under | 77c | 35.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8138…f52cbacked Under | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9272…a501backed Under | 77c | 31.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fb…7c39backed Under | 74c | 30.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 76c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 892 | 52.9%472 W · 420 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…142abacked Under | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca3c…6bafbacked Under | 78c | 22.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 73c | 20.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 259 | 49.4%128 W · 131 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…e1acbacked Under | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Everton FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Everton FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Everton FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Everton FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Everton FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.