Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6085ac81f6f33674faacdef016f1ee40fb1e267198409209a967d5d77b46bd6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa391…5666backed No | 75c | 611$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 492.18$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.24 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 393.24$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 76c | 393.02$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 319.79$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.78 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 293.28$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.36 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 71c | 255$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.05 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 24c | 227.07$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.57 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 15c | 202.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 28c | 200$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.96 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 194.66$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.56 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 23c | 192.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.4 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 189.34$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.59 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 176.38$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 25c | 169.13$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.05 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 20c | 155.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.76 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 145.56$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.61 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 50c | 139$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.05 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 11c | 117.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 111.61$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.38 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 20c | 111$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.15 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 22c | 96.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.7 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 72c | 88.54$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 21c | 85.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.07 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 79c | 85.2$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 83.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.01 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 18c | 76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed No | 69c | 72.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 42c | 71.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf616…507cbacked Yes | 61c | 63.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 17c | 61.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 25c | 59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Yes | 25c | 49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 61c | 48.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 44.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 42.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 76c | 39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 71c | 36.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 73c | 32.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 30.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 27.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 24.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…ea84backed Yes | 75c | 22.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fed…e9cabacked No | 76c | 13.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.