Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60c513b8e8334935d69be12370c8bc2b3717c7b2f05e2a3774148d58a1dc769a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x535b…4b60backed Yes | 43c | 1,347$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.4 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 538.16$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.65 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 42c | 511.76$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.49 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 55c | 285.41$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.16 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 280.25$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 29c | 240.34$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.1 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 206.79$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.54 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 50c | 201.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.04 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 189$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 55c | 183.3$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.71 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 63c | 182.12$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.52 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 178.28$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.04 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 175.56$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 45c | 154.77$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.78 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 154.75$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 74c | 141.55$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 74c | 136.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 134.39$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.57 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 133.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 63c | 124.49$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 57c | 123.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.29 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 54c | 120.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.72 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…cc0dbacked Yes | 63c | 119.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 109.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 57c | 102.57$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 63c | 100.52$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.34 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 34c | 99.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.98 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 95.39$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 18c | 94.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 53c | 92.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 91.22$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 56c | 86.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 64c | 86.26$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.21 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 84.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 51c | 81.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked No | 47c | 79.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 77c | 74.81$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 57c | 74.52$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 27c | 73.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 45c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 67c | 69.52$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 55c | 67.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 51c | 64.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 69c | 59.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed No | 39c | 58.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 66c | 57.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Yes | 70c | 55.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 67c | 54.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 70c | 52.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 68c | 51.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 43c | 51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 33c | 45.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…6e63backed No | 57c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…cd19backed No | 58c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed No | 57c | 42.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 67c | 41.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…d53fbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 47c | 38.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 46c | 36.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 45c | 35.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 62c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 57c | 34.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 62c | 34.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 59c | 34.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b0…cc9cbacked Yes | 70c | 32.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 66c | 32.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 44c | 31.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked No | 51c | 30.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 66c | 29.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 35c | 29.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 38c | 27.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 62c | 24.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 47c | 23.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 65c | 22.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 62c | 21.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f2…9bf5backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa287…416cbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 63c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or below on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.