Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab3bd3ce3fc448af8679ac955d311e389a8a43d7ea4fc4c3c9d6e437c45a721f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x535b…4b60backed Yes | 31c | 1,306$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.01 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 31c | 652.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 75c | 348.59$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.53 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 313.14$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.07 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 25c | 270.56$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 20c | 260$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 73c | 255.42$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.37 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 250.21$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.21 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 206.75$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.51 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 182.37$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.75 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 68c | 177.66$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.85 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 23c | 174.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 72c | 165$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 163.29$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.48 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 162.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 73c | 160$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…cc0dbacked Yes | 55c | 155.31$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.82 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 27c | 155.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 36c | 151.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 148.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 71c | 139.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 23c | 128.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 29c | 125.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 118.85$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 42c | 117.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 21c | 116.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 28c | 111.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 98.38$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 66c | 97.29$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 35c | 96.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 93.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 14c | 93.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 63c | 90.3$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 32c | 90.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 37c | 89.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 71c | 87.6$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 84.75$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 46c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 69c | 76.57$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 75.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 72c | 67.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 30c | 65.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 65.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 23c | 63.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 65c | 63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 26c | 61.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Yes | 38c | 60.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 70c | 59.76$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 23c | 58.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 61c | 54.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 37c | 53.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 37c | 53.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb4…b673backed No | 69c | 52.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 31c | 51.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 71c | 50.71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 36c | 49.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 40c | 48.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 54c | 45.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…cd19backed No | 68c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…6e63backed No | 67c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 31c | 43.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 73c | 43.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 71c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 41.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…dcc6backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 38.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 71c | 38.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 55c | 36.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 57c | 35.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…d53fbacked No | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 70c | 34.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 64c | 34.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…b89cbacked Yes | 33c | 32.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…1405backed Yes | 44c | 30.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 55c | 30.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 70c | 30.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd4…9370backed No | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 70c | 27.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 27.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 59c | 25.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 63c | 23.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or below on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.