Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: FC Porto (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60e4335c19ce7e7776c8bf3ee1e8c647bfc6f4826183e78064ef9039ec62ded0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nottingham Forest FCof FC Porto, Nottingham Forest FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc699…7961backed FC Porto | 13c | 10,574$1,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,422.1 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +65%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed FC Porto | 11c | 5,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…5068backed FC Porto | 11c | 3,999$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.92 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5b…3772backed FC Porto | 2c | 1,465$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…f8a2backed FC Porto | 2c | 1,376$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed FC Porto | 10c | 1,340$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.59 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…cb72backed FC Porto | 11c | 1,300$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…87efbacked FC Porto | 12c | 1,226$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.04 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed FC Porto | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbef6…48a3backed FC Porto | 9c | 999.7$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5f…10aebacked FC Porto | 12c | 843.01$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf95…7e16backed FC Porto | 12c | 789.33$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed FC Porto | 11c | 394.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed FC Porto | 10c | 299.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 212 | 43.9%93 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed FC Porto | 10c | 283.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked FC Porto | 10c | 259.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x787d…aecdbacked FC Porto | 11c | 229.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -54%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed FC Porto | 11c | 172.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed FC Porto | 12c | 168.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdb…529dbacked FC Porto | 13c | 161.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 37cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed FC Porto | 12c | 157.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -73%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked FC Porto | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Porto (-1.5)this page
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Porto: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Porto: O/U 1.5Under won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Porto: O/U 2.5Under won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Porto: O/U 3.5Under won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Porto: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)FC Porto won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)FC Porto won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.