Europa Conference League · resolved market
Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Porto: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a46a9c8ff39eabc71776f42a4f5e54ff49631e04bdc188a1be9de7c989f6b64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,442
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 21c | 7,012$1,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,462.11 | 128 | 32.8%42 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 5,388$4,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.62 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 23c | 1,659$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.52 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 25c | 1,570$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.81 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 79c | 1,124$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.83 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 79c | 899.38$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.66 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 79c | 631.9$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 23c | 602.82$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 39c | 560.71$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.4 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64c…34f2backed Under | 61c | 488.3$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.44 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked Under | 76c | 453.89$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8b…88cbbacked Over | 21c | 348.79$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 40c | 333.96$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.58 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 61c | 332.25$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.12 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…04a8backed Under | 63c | 310.41$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4a…e7cabacked Under | 65c | 302.03$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb715…2b2fbacked Over | 4c | 284.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb876…d9c3backed Over | 21c | 231.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +67%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 79c | 199$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 80c | 171.87$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 114 | 43.9%50 W · 64 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…6f21backed Under | 67c | 161.3$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.74 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…add5backed Over | 21c | 133.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 21c | 126.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 79c | 124.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff70…78abbacked Under | 76c | 123.32$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 20c | 115.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 27c | 111.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Under | 78c | 110.52$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 24 | 87.5%21 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 79c | 107.68$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 23c | 103.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 40c | 96.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x881e…70f8backed Under | 80c | 95.1$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Under | 80c | 86.45$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -4.4wins | -0.32per pick | 60cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…f1ffbacked Under | 60c | 81.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 60c | 73.96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 77c | 59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 21c | 58.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 36c | 53.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed Under | 73c | 53.22$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 33c | 50.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57bf…0169backed Under | 80c | 37.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +40%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Over | 37c | 34.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Under | 79c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…530dbacked Under | 63c | 31.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 80c | 30.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Under | 74c | 29.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 79c | 24.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b5…2ee9backed Under | 80c | 24.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef3a…dc6bbacked Under | 80c | 24.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4c…5c55backed Under | 79c | 23.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed Under | 80c | 22.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 72cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53f2…defdbacked Under | 62c | 20.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 79c | 19.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b2…c115backed Under | 80c | 19.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Under | 62c | 19.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa574…0559backed Under | 80c | 19.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ec…f845backed Under | 73c | 18.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd507…f719backed Under | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Under | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Porto: O/U 3.5this page
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Porto: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Porto: O/U 1.5Under won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Porto: O/U 2.5Under won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Porto: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Porto (-1.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)FC Porto won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)FC Porto won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.