NBA · resolved market
Suns vs. Raptors: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x617c6de9c3b6342940a4517cd5084f5957a792438da5f7833cbaf6cf6bcc105b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Suns, Raptors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,633 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x739a…f78abacked Suns | 40c | 747.93$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.76 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Raptors | 52c | 385.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.44 | 531 | 34.7%184 W · 347 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…328ebacked Suns | 47c | 338.33$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.04 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Raptors | 47c | 307.92$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.55 | 263 | 53.6%141 W · 122 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00cb…3992backed Suns | 55c | 279.15$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.62 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8c…1977backed Raptors | 60c | 197.64$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.58 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef4a…0314backed Raptors | 60c | 191.34$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf564…a382backed Raptors | 60c | 181.02$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.61 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabc1…eaa0backed Raptors | 60c | 177.93$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.76 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…a103backed Suns | 40c | 155.25$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +8.1wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Raptors | 60c | 146.57$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.94 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…9bb2backed Suns | 53c | 140$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Raptors | 49c | 99.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Raptors | 60c | 88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Suns | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 574 | 44.1%253 W · 321 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Suns | 49c | 60.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Raptors | 58c | 59.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Suns | 43c | 59.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Raptors | 36c | 49.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Raptors | 58c | 44.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf305…8299backed Raptors | 39c | 37.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +147.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Suns | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Raptors | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c2…cf66backed Suns | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6330…1444backed Raptors | 59c | 18.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -6.8wins | -0.36per pick | 41cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5c…8080backed Raptors | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Suns vs. Raptors: 1H Moneylinethis page
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Devin Booker: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Immanuel Quickley: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jakob Poeltl: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Jalen Green: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jalen Green: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- RJ Barrett: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Royce O'Neale: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Scottie Barnes: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-5.5)Raptors won
- Suns vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Suns vs. Raptors: O/U 217.5Over won
- Suns vs. Raptors: O/U 218.5Over won
- Suns vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5Over won
- Suns vs. Raptors: O/U 221.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.