NBA · resolved market
Suns vs. Raptors: O/U 221.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53638cae6a1b9dad17f3cf12bc428f6bd7327cdff93cf45344719faa70a41f06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,665 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 48c | 27,320$12,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,329.49 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Under | 52c | 21,236$11,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,042.58 | 155 | 45.8%71 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Over | 47c | 20,007$9,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,603.98 | 382 | 51%195 W · 187 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 48c | 13,373$6,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,008.08 | 348 | 51.7%180 W · 168 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Under | 53c | 11,000$5,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,830 | 584 | 49.7%290 W · 294 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 10,315$4,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,416.91 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Under | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,300 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 53c | 9,000$4,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,770 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ae…f001backed Under | 53c | 5,870$3,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,111.09 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 52c | 2,215$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.05 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 53c | 1,226$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 649 | 44.7%290 W · 359 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebba…383cbacked Under | 53c | 943.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 240 | 50.8%122 W · 118 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 48c | 532.66$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.61 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Over | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Over | 48c | 260.42$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.42 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 77c | 258.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.16 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 23c | 207.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 201.68$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.93 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba58…28c2backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 216 | 37.5%81 W · 135 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 228 | 50.9%116 W · 112 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 525 | 52%273 W · 252 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…31e7backed Over | 48c | 42.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cd…2ddcbacked Over | 51c | 33.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 53c | 28.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 514 | 38.7%199 W · 315 L | -29.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…bc49backed Under | 53c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 234 | 53%124 W · 110 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x111c…40a3backed Over | 48c | 25.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee65…653cbacked Under | 53c | 20.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 52c | 19.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Suns vs. Raptors: O/U 221.5this page
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Devin Booker: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Immanuel Quickley: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jakob Poeltl: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Jalen Green: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jalen Green: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- RJ Barrett: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Royce O'Neale: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Scottie Barnes: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-5.5)Raptors won
- Suns vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Suns vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Suns vs. Raptors: O/U 217.5Over won
- Suns vs. Raptors: O/U 218.5Over won
- Suns vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.