UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61854c7521984aa271755c264e5bb18df5db9c60cb935ef80752c9116a59819f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 41c | 1,753$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.94 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 65c | 1,009$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.76 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 35c | 826.79$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.22 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 58cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec71…70ebbacked Under | 64c | 703.74$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -5.3wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Over | 41c | 642$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.66 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 35c | 425.57$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.01 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Under | 62c | 380.33$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.8 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4291…b6bdbacked Under | 59c | 342$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.66 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…8b6dbacked Under | 60c | 300$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…8c6abacked Under | 71c | 282.81$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdad9…6b63backed Under | 65c | 183.08$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 37c | 146.68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.7 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x520e…d75abacked Over | 37c | 143.3$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.73 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5227…f9bdbacked Over | 37c | 105$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.2 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5995…3385backed Under | 64c | 77.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea51…83a0backed Under | 64c | 65.47$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 58c | 58.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…a520backed Over | 43c | 55.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0a…d221backed Over | 44c | 54.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9386…cfe5backed Under | 66c | 51.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…73d2backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…2f17backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6827…26fdbacked Under | 58c | 38.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77c0…af29backed Under | 63c | 31.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46ed…cfa6backed Under | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Under | 62c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Under | 62c | 19.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 324: Pulyaev vs. Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims)Gautier won
- Will Ateba Gautier win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.