TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BetBoom Teamof BetBoom Team, Virtus.pro
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$213,402
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$300,818

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $213,402 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1a5c…a375backed BetBoom Team70c63,735$44,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,246.573438.2%13 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe705…f910backed Virtus.pro30c50,000$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,0004348.8%21 W · 22 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x077c…76babacked BetBoom Team78c5,949$4,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,303.84666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Virtus.pro32c5,154$1,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,649.3413020%26 W · 104 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Virtus.pro10c3,838$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.072,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4255…1792backed Virtus.pro31c3,322$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.8213731.4%43 W · 94 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfee…ed1fbacked Virtus.pro25c3,149$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.5510618.9%20 W · 86 L-14.0wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-52%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked BetBoom Team66c3,135$2,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065.934544.3%153 W · 192 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Virtus.pro30c3,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.9989440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca5e…4af1backed Virtus.pro34c2,680$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.041040%4 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-32.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Virtus.pro30c2,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75081029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bf8…2f4abacked Virtus.pro13c2,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2605034%17 W · 33 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-8.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Virtus.pro10c1,968$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.189749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Virtus.pro31c1,564$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.361,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed BetBoom Team65c1,506$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.651,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Virtus.pro32c1,438$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.081,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Virtus.pro31c1,438$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.761,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x70db…f73fbacked Virtus.pro32c1,200$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.674341.9%18 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Virtus.pro31c1,095$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.4580544.6%359 W · 446 L-25.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Virtus.pro31c1,028$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.5623342.9%100 W · 133 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f6…1a99backed BetBoom Team68c1,020$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.341163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdae8…8c95backed Virtus.pro35c1,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Virtus.pro17c965.88$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.288328.9%24 W · 59 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-39.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Virtus.pro31c964.83$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.34951%25 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Virtus.pro14c860.47$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.4716232.7%53 W · 109 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-29.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Virtus.pro32c854.36$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.4926843.7%117 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Virtus.pro13c798.27$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.9396645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf95c…61d8backed BetBoom Team76c779.16$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.99837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick59cpaid-43.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked BetBoom Team71c688.4$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.9920367%136 W · 67 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x30d9…41c7backed Virtus.pro40c680.44$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Virtus.pro12c658.4$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.21,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8d9…753abacked Virtus.pro14c656.82$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.952766.7%18 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+28.3%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed BetBoom Team70c599.45$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.361,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Virtus.pro30c540$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.5837223.1%86 W · 286 L-38.2wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-38.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x83e4…757dbacked Virtus.pro10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-41%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Virtus.pro5c404.7$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9110833.3%36 W · 72 L-7.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-39.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked BetBoom Team59c400$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16456243.2%243 W · 319 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Virtus.pro8c383.57$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6968649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Virtus.pro5c327.46$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0378516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x0a9c…f755backed BetBoom Team67c324.77$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.841546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd74…76b9backed Virtus.pro44c319.26$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.743531.4%11 W · 24 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed Virtus.pro19c300$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4836138.2%138 W · 223 L-20.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac43…4925backed BetBoom Team70c280.57$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.172373.9%17 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick60cpaid+23.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed BetBoom Team56c258.07$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.2519241.1%79 W · 113 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4fa…4a86backed Virtus.pro13c250$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5277.4%2 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-52.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Virtus.pro28c247.6$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6556852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae06…be4dbacked BetBoom Team76c246.4$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.147361.6%45 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ee…878ebacked Virtus.pro12c235.93$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.429552.6%50 W · 45 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Virtus.pro32c216.71$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2656348.1%271 W · 292 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ac2…e183backed BetBoom Team70c211.1$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.8224955.4%138 W · 111 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x461f…8719backed Virtus.pro30c204.37$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.319749.5%48 W · 49 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Virtus.pro32c203.71$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.665742.1%24 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10cf…1cfbbacked Virtus.pro31c192.56$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-71.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Virtus.pro31c185.54$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5248539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62a9…3bb6backed Virtus.pro11c172.11$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9310546.7%49 W · 56 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffb…f7f0backed Virtus.pro12c162.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9451550.9%262 W · 253 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x595c…3b03backed Virtus.pro32c157.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5410852.8%57 W · 51 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x431c…12ecbacked Virtus.pro43c153.49$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked BetBoom Team79c152.93$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7367043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ea…6df7backed Virtus.pro24c150$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3612720.5%26 W · 101 L-22.6wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-62.9%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed Virtus.pro33c149.25$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.251050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c55…7ef8backed Virtus.pro33c149.25$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8232…d12fbacked BetBoom Team67c146.3$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.2828062.9%176 W · 104 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked BetBoom Team68c144.24$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.167657.9%44 W · 32 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Virtus.pro17c142.73$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.781,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6289…7175backed Virtus.pro15c142.35$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.351050%5 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+26.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x329c…2485backed Virtus.pro32c129.25$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.364035%14 W · 26 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-28.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed Virtus.pro33c128.54$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.150247.6%239 W · 263 L+31.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Virtus.pro21c128.08$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3547046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Virtus.pro31c123.22$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.270236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Virtus.pro18c120.95$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.132,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c6a…189bbacked BetBoom Team69c118.88$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.854445.5%20 W · 24 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Virtus.pro32c115.1$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8341050.2%206 W · 204 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed Virtus.pro13c111.16$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4551140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0d8…073dbacked Virtus.pro13c102.07$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.271145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+27.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Virtus.pro12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Virtus.pro30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309339.8%37 W · 56 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3177…cb28backed Virtus.pro33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336749.3%33 W · 34 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Virtus.pro30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,27045.1%573 W · 697 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1a…4e20backed Virtus.pro32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322035%7 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc209…7924backed BetBoom Team69c99.99$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3150757.4%291 W · 216 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6683…f5f4backed BetBoom Team64c97.84$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.221866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdcab…b9bbbacked Virtus.pro31c96.39$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.711442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1791…3e87backed Virtus.pro31c95.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.814652.1%76 W · 70 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Virtus.pro23c91$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9369033.3%230 W · 460 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e8f…4374backed Virtus.pro32c89.93$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.785147.1%24 W · 27 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Virtus.pro34c82.31$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9910961.5%67 W · 42 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Virtus.pro30c80.83$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.251330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe658…2c42backed Virtus.pro33c80$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.42147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed Virtus.pro31c79.2$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.26949.3%34 W · 35 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba0d…9a6ebacked Virtus.pro34c77.58$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.382556%14 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Virtus.pro29c76.74$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6358346.3%270 W · 313 L-9.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0caa…b2bdbacked BetBoom Team64c75.41$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1614762.6%92 W · 55 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Virtus.pro31c73.47$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0925648%123 W · 133 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed BetBoom Team70c71.55$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4659456.7%337 W · 257 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0745…31e2backed Virtus.pro15c70$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.58132.1%26 W · 55 L-6.2wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-28.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ee9…20a2backed Virtus.pro15c68.89$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.317429.7%22 W · 52 L-8.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-43.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3ab3…9cd6backed BetBoom Team73c59.42$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x252f…2561backed BetBoom Team69c56.89$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6431659.8%189 W · 127 L+18.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3f1…c252backed BetBoom Team71c56.26$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.14949%24 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.