NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6200c5b707940f17f007bee44de0181e37166baa8dd2debe62dcebd622657da2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 51c | 2,342$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.73 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Over | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 49c | 1,961$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Under | 49c | 1,608$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.08 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Over | 51c | 1,488$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.88 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 1,165$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.97 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 1,106$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.18 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 52c | 719.58$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.18 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 67c | 400$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 373$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.45 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 328.8$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.77 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x042a…7f4cbacked Under | 51c | 294.8$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.45 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 33c | 236$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.12 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a3…718ebacked Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 51c | 197.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.83 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 49c | 169.17$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.65 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Under | 49c | 146.94$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.94 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ff…121cbacked Under | 46c | 120.64$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 54c | 110.35$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.87 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…ff79backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…17e7backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474b…c5b1backed Under | 50c | 92.64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.32 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af0…1929backed Under | 50c | 92.64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.32 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…c2edbacked Under | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 53c | 64.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5373…e46bbacked Under | 50c | 46.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 49c | 39.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 49c | 39.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…f18cbacked Under | 36c | 38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 40c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 50c | 21.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Grizzlies vs. ThunderThunder won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-13.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.