NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69946be67728983c8db67720b256950bf14a41dd66a632631559fe5cecf665bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 5,592$2,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,951.97 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Under | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,650 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…b6dfbacked Over | 54c | 481.5$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Under | 47c | 422$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.66 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 53c | 422$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.66 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 420$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.74 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e2…8e9ebacked Under | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Under | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 193 | 51.8%100 W · 93 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 304.25$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.16 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe86c…bb51backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | +13.0wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Over | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25e7…51d6backed Over | 55c | 136.2$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8881backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…b8d2backed Under | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab7…180ebacked Under | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11e7…6d5cbacked Under | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38db…d245backed Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 46c | 51.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Grizzlies vs. ThunderThunder won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-13.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.