NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefa2cfc88d715a088a14f16b7135b9d71d8d713f5d7489e1c77fb696e0fb0a96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,013
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,013 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 55c | 449.05$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 412.62$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.31 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Over | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Under | 46c | 232$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.26 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 46c | 227.32$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.29 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Under | 46c | 220$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.89 | 95 | 60%57 W · 38 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Under | 47c | 157$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.64 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 44c | 131$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.88 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Under | 45c | 120$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Under | 41c | 111$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.66 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Under | 42c | 104$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.23 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…e6f5backed Under | 48c | 94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Under | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…48d8backed Over | 53c | 83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…61d9backed Over | 54c | 82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Under | 44c | 73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed Over | 57c | 71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Under | 45c | 64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Under | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38dc…4c5fbacked Over | 56c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +8.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +22%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e71…8913backed Over | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Under | 48c | 57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…9c83backed Under | 35c | 57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca0…7ebebacked Under | 35c | 55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Under | 45c | 54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Under | 46c | 47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Under | 35c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -8.6wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 58c | 44.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…c1a4backed Over | 54c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…1969backed Over | 55c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d10…e17cbacked Over | 52c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…d253backed Over | 54c | 42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…840ebacked Over | 55c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda6e…e417backed Over | 52c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc39b…5754backed Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…e342backed Over | 56c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5192backed Over | 55c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…a93bbacked Over | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed Over | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9874…15d7backed Over | 58c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf447…3fe7backed Over | 56c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Under | 35c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 41c | 31.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…c5cdbacked Over | 54c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…41f0backed Over | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Under | 50c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed Under | 44c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf2…6640backed Over | 60c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa9…7097backed Over | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -6.6wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeff8…1bcfbacked Under | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed Under | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…9b17backed Over | 56c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…0297backed Over | 55c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d78…4756backed Over | 55c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Under | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…d32ebacked Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…bd06backed Over | 56c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x370a…cccebacked Over | 60c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Over | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a4…581ebacked Over | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…1ddcbacked Over | 65c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…7893backed Over | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…87b0backed Over | 65c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fba…dc55backed Over | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Grizzlies vs. ThunderThunder won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-13.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.