NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d79df9442ecfbb6273b2b01ea4191abdf584c3179275cb7bc0a09afc342891a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 56c | 5,112$2,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,262.69 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Grizzlies | 45c | 5,000$2,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,248.29 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Thunder | 56c | 4,727$2,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,079.78 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Grizzlies | 45c | 3,369$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,519.95 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Grizzlies | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Thunder | 50c | 1,756$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.04 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Grizzlies | 42c | 1,655$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Thunder | 56c | 1,506$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.64 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Thunder | 58c | 1,208$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.66 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9d…992bbacked Thunder | 52c | 1,100$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528 | 118 | 34.7%41 W · 77 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Thunder | 65c | 830$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.69 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Thunder | 57c | 830$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.9 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Thunder | 54c | 519.07$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.07 | 238 | 45%107 W · 131 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Grizzlies | 46c | 501$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.69 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5520…32ffbacked Grizzlies | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Grizzlies | 39c | 493$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.27 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Thunder | 56c | 376$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.44 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Thunder | 56c | 285.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.84 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Grizzlies | 44c | 175.82$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.35 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc42…01b2backed Grizzlies | 51c | 167.24$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.29 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | -10.0wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Grizzlies | 61c | 147.05$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.43 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Grizzlies | 44c | 136.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Thunder | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Grizzlies | 44c | 87.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…db87backed Thunder | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x196a…f34fbacked Grizzlies | 44c | 70.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Grizzlies | 50c | 61.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Thunder | 49c | 61.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x315c…593bbacked Thunder | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Grizzlies | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 141 | 27.7%39 W · 102 L | -16.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Grizzlies | 53c | 46.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 355 | 51.3%182 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…1dccbacked Grizzlies | 44c | 44.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 270 | 34.8%94 W · 176 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Thunder | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Grizzlies | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -18.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Grizzlies | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6127backed Thunder | 58c | 29.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Grizzlies | 42c | 29.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Grizzlies | 45c | 24.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Grizzlies | 44c | 22.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Thunder | 56c | 21.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-13.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Grizzlies vs. ThunderThunder won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.