NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a1f0cace9787768d8db03780563327f20e3a5d041b80b837aa6eaf6e2250a84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Thunder | 60c | 9,042$5,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,622.64 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Grizzlies | 43c | 5,000$2,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,145.55 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Grizzlies | 42c | 3,357$1,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,419.27 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies | 40c | 2,927$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.65 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9d…992bbacked Thunder | 51c | 1,823$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.1 | 118 | 34.7%41 W · 77 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Grizzlies | 50c | 642.93$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.38 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6a…9717backed Thunder | 62c | 605.73$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.18 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Thunder | 59c | 249.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Grizzlies | 40c | 191.92$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.92 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Thunder | 60c | 169.89$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.96 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba50…ad0bbacked Thunder | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 240 | 55.4%133 W · 107 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…9811backed Thunder | 62c | 146.99$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12c3…a470backed Grizzlies | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder | 57c | 115$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd59a…ac62backed Grizzlies | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Grizzlies | 41c | 80.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…db87backed Grizzlies | 51c | 78.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Thunder | 50c | 62.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Grizzlies | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Thunder | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Thunder | 50c | 40.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Thunder | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Thunder | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf84f…c367backed Thunder | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Grizzlies | 41c | 25.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Grizzlies | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Thunder | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 99 | 57.6%57 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Thunder | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Thunder | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Grizzlies vs. ThunderThunder won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Thunder (-13.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.