NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-15.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x793043c3e034b75298510b632dd24cfbd6bf6b808b76126ac532174424575c1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $622,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $626,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $622,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Thunder | 50c | 586,114$291,921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294,193.09 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Grizzlies | 51c | 203,000$103,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103,480 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Grizzlies | 50c | 60,560$30,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,484.19 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Grizzlies | 49c | 57,471$28,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,122.94 | 267 | 53.2%142 W · 125 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 48,045$23,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,732.56 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Grizzlies | 51c | 40,000$20,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,400 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Grizzlies | 49c | 30,965$15,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,172.65 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Grizzlies | 50c | 28,725$14,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,284.75 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Grizzlies | 49c | 25,477$12,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,602.23 | 375 | 57.6%216 W · 159 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Grizzlies | 49c | 22,345$10,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,948.9 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Grizzlies | 51c | 20,000$10,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,200 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Grizzlies | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Grizzlies | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Grizzlies | 50c | 9,919$4,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,998.75 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Grizzlies | 50c | 8,244$4,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,092.87 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Grizzlies | 49c | 7,800$3,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,846 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 275 | 46.2%127 W · 148 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f4…c918backed Thunder | 52c | 3,810$1,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,829 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.42per pick | 44cpaid | +116.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Grizzlies | 51c | 2,500$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Thunder | 50c | 1,981$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.77 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8013…5b52backed Grizzlies | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735 | 175 | 54.9%96 W · 79 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 1,143$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.07 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…dd26backed Grizzlies | 51c | 790$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.9 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Grizzlies | 50c | 740$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.4 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Grizzlies | 52c | 700$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 250 | 39.6%99 W · 151 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Thunder | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 406 | 48%195 W · 211 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Grizzlies | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed Grizzlies | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Thunder | 49c | 450.98$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 396$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.04 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Grizzlies | 48c | 394.95$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.74 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e9…5112backed Grizzlies | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 217 | 49.3%107 W · 110 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Grizzlies | 50c | 238.2$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.1 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Grizzlies | 31c | 230.49$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.21 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Thunder | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Grizzlies | 50c | 200$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21b4…e064backed Grizzlies | 52c | 198.85$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.4 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Grizzlies | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Grizzlies | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Grizzlies | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Grizzlies | 49c | 132.63$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 288 | 56.9%164 W · 124 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a3…0918backed Grizzlies | 52c | 126.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8881backed Grizzlies | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Grizzlies | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 522 | 42.7%223 W · 299 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Grizzlies | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 244 | 54.1%132 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Thunder | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da9…582ebacked Grizzlies | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Grizzlies | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef2…6e74backed Grizzlies | 52c | 80.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -8.2wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Thunder | 49c | 74.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Grizzlies | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb3…ae1ebacked Grizzlies | 50c | 40.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Thunder | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 455 | 42.4%193 W · 262 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Grizzlies | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 336 | 53.9%181 W · 155 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Thunder | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Thunder | 49c | 37.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Grizzlies | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 324 | 50%162 W · 162 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0266…2957backed Thunder | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Grizzlies | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 599 | 48.4%290 W · 309 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Grizzlies | 50c | 24.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 327 | 43.4%142 W · 185 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Grizzlies | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 624 | 50%312 W · 312 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Grizzlies vs. ThunderThunder won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-13.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.