Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x621bec12975921919bf12ba2ac60c62f713902b623d324428cc68557cbe5bd4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof Aurora, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $427,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $427,701 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 393 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5ea…d96abacked Heroic | 52c | 116,416$60,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55,895.95 | 287 | 48.8%140 W · 147 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Aurora | 47c | 46,912$21,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,819.65 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Heroic | 43c | 23,764$10,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,563.57 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d58…9a15backed Aurora | 38c | 20,882$7,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,974.33 | 148 | 40.5%60 W · 88 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18bb…e5cdbacked Aurora | 30c | 19,220$5,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,846.53 | 130 | 20%26 W · 104 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Aurora | 46c | 8,832$4,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,043.16 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Aurora | 58c | 8,614$4,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,996.06 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb517…434bbacked Aurora | 43c | 8,496$3,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,613.03 | 228 | 42.1%96 W · 132 L | -25.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…06c4backed Aurora | 24c | 7,362$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…16acbacked Aurora | 58c | 6,734$3,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,878.47 | 229 | 54.1%124 W · 105 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Heroic | 60c | 6,544$3,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,616.13 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb63…a71dbacked Aurora | 47c | 6,451$3,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,053.04 | 201 | 59.7%120 W · 81 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…c023backed Aurora | 25c | 6,337$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 489 | 54.6%267 W · 222 L | +23.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…33d1backed Aurora | 46c | 6,174$2,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,816.39 | 426 | 50%213 W · 213 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…e2d4backed Heroic | 46c | 5,749$2,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,122.56 | 161 | 42.9%69 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Aurora | 57c | 5,000$2,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,869.96 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Heroic | 67c | 4,693$3,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,548.56 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora | 41c | 4,636$1,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,889.7 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed Heroic | 53c | 4,580$2,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,162.56 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533e…47f4backed Aurora | 47c | 4,255$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa206…d166backed Aurora | 15c | 3,800$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6998…ae95backed Aurora | 9c | 3,784$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.37 | 168 | 21.4%36 W · 132 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2775…3652backed Aurora | 50c | 3,416$1,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,698.14 | 330 | 41.8%138 W · 192 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…951cbacked Heroic | 78c | 3,169$2,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.6 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…0958backed Aurora | 58c | 3,000$1,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,730 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x085e…9aeabacked Aurora | 55c | 2,853$1,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,568.96 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae10…d0d9backed Aurora | 8c | 2,774$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.88 | 173 | 53.2%92 W · 81 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…df44backed Aurora | 61c | 2,623$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5731…bde7backed Heroic | 39c | 2,623$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ac…a924backed Aurora | 62c | 2,588$1,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,606.09 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd722…2b5bbacked Aurora | 60c | 2,530$1,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,517.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ce…3f01backed Heroic | 64c | 2,480$1,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.79 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Heroic | 40c | 2,415$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,460.79 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed Heroic | 75c | 2,390$1,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.37 | 180 | 75%135 W · 45 L | +18.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…756abacked Heroic | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 119 | 60.5%72 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1e…ff14backed Aurora | 60c | 1,829$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.34 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x809c…eca3backed Aurora | 61c | 1,822$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.72 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Aurora | 50c | 1,810$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.56 | 485 | 39.2%190 W · 295 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbb…7e44backed Aurora | 48c | 1,799$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.29 | 151 | 51%77 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc5…d1a4backed Heroic | 50c | 1,598$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.12 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c1…dba0backed Heroic | 67c | 1,590$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.59 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Aurora | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…95d1backed Aurora | 15c | 1,380$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.9 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Aurora | 58c | 1,313$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.14 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Heroic | 41c | 1,292$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.06 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf393…9b65backed Aurora | 57c | 1,271$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.09 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b7…7ffabacked Aurora | 46c | 1,244$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…9a41backed Aurora | 41c | 1,199$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.5 | 230 | 50.9%117 W · 113 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d40…2230backed Aurora | 45c | 1,158$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.45 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Heroic | 40c | 1,130$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.99 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Heroic | 45c | 1,115$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.99 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f40…e1f2backed Heroic | 45c | 1,100$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.98 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -7.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6463…1f5cbacked Heroic | 67c | 1,080$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.8 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Aurora | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…971abacked Heroic | 45c | 1,054$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.24 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f9…cf34backed Heroic | 51c | 1,040$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.46 | 186 | 61.8%115 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf5…b1d0backed Heroic | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 286 | 50%143 W · 143 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x332f…1ee8backed Heroic | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 92 | 53.3%49 W · 43 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Heroic | 29c | 988.95$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.43 | 174 | 44.8%78 W · 96 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0856…2d20backed Aurora | 54c | 927.31$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Aurora | 49c | 897.4$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.21 | 201 | 56.7%114 W · 87 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x096a…0074backed Aurora | 52c | 895.68$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.39 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -7.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9767…b5c4backed Heroic | 33c | 894.58$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.21 | 159 | 46.5%74 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7c…5a30backed Heroic | 62c | 894.34$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.63 | 95 | 44.2%42 W · 53 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc093…de0ebacked Aurora | 36c | 876.58$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.57 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora | 63c | 868.74$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.92 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Aurora | 53c | 843.29$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Aurora | 61c | 778.69$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…56efbacked Aurora | 47c | 762.58$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.41 | 565 | 42.8%242 W · 323 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b6…ad8ebacked Heroic | 44c | 725.46$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.26 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc8…67f7backed Heroic | 73c | 723.14$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.94 | 191 | 62.8%120 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Heroic | 61c | 711.22$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.15 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…a06dbacked Heroic | 44c | 685.96$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.96 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…91adbacked Heroic | 76c | 682.12$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.36 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a12…d212backed Heroic | 77c | 672.1$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.75 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f41…547cbacked Heroic | 59c | 670.17$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.17 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Aurora | 50c | 660.35$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.21 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…c7b2backed Heroic | 52c | 653.97$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.37 | 156 | 50.6%79 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2199…f619backed Heroic | 80c | 628.58$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.72 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Heroic | 51c | 622.79$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.33 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…91a1backed Heroic | 46c | 620.27$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.42 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc2…514cbacked Heroic | 69c | 578.06$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.2 | 338 | 45.6%154 W · 184 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…d1a6backed Heroic | 36c | 574$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.36 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Aurora | 48c | 549.3$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.16 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Aurora | 47c | 524.93$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.89 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…2014backed Aurora | 60c | 506.04$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -45%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…d5f4backed Aurora | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 166 | 41.6%69 W · 97 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5554…98f9backed Aurora | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbec5…8f77backed Aurora | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Aurora | 34c | 500$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.68 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cb…8f46backed Heroic | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…19c0backed Aurora | 32c | 499.98$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.99 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked Aurora | 62c | 496.26$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.49 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…2fe4backed Heroic | 41c | 490$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.1 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Heroic | 52c | 485.83$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.04 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Heroic | 73c | 466.99$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.7 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d33…7287backed Heroic | 66c | 454.55$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.55 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda1c…15f2backed Heroic | 68c | 442.57$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.57 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed Heroic | 70c | 435.59$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.32 | 171 | 52%89 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…ae45backed Aurora | 38c | 433$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.81 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -68%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stagethis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 1 WinnerHeroic won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)Heroic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.