Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeea9bc0ace17503d355c2217822967dcd2f5af612e1588731400a525ae2a9f44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof Aurora, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $152,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,154 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b91…06c4backed Aurora | 26c | 18,359$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 25c | 15,628$3,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,872.17 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed Heroic | 78c | 15,100$11,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,249.62 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +11.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Heroic | 60c | 6,751$4,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,728.46 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Heroic | 47c | 6,413$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,412.59 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Aurora | 21c | 4,165$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.62 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x491d…f42bbacked Heroic | 75c | 4,117$3,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.49 | 396 | 60.1%238 W · 158 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Aurora | 54c | 4,001$2,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,144.28 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Aurora | 57c | 4,000$2,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,278.73 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2775…3652backed Heroic | 45c | 3,840$1,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,110.68 | 330 | 41.8%138 W · 192 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Aurora | 55c | 3,657$2,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,011.41 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb63…a71dbacked Aurora | 70c | 3,628$2,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,539.5 | 201 | 59.7%120 W · 81 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f9…cf34backed Heroic | 75c | 2,353$1,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.27 | 186 | 61.8%115 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…e2d4backed Heroic | 43c | 2,300$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,311 | 161 | 42.9%69 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Heroic | 57c | 2,045$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.45 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…e05fbacked Heroic | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 412 | 42.2%174 W · 238 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6998…ae95backed Aurora | 5c | 1,659$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.72 | 168 | 21.4%36 W · 132 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…19c0backed Heroic | 45c | 999.98$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.99 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…88d7backed Heroic | 45c | 899.99$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.99 | 103 | 34%35 W · 68 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe375…dadfbacked Aurora | 60c | 828.52$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 129 | 48.1%62 W · 67 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Aurora | 14c | 822.9$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.05 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…9a41backed Aurora | 39c | 699.99$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.67 | 230 | 50.9%117 W · 113 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Aurora | 38c | 695.6$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.09 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed Heroic | 44c | 687.47$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.22 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Heroic | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Heroic | 42c | 590.32$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.48 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…96a5backed Heroic | 38c | 576.97$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.6 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aurora | 24c | 554.57$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.81 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Heroic | 42c | 491.33$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.47 | 485 | 39.2%190 W · 295 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…dcb9backed Heroic | 30c | 488.67$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.75 | 285 | 49.1%140 W · 145 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed Aurora | 38c | 434.45$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.96 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Aurora | 18c | 431.24$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.21 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Aurora | 6c | 399.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Heroic | 42c | 399.98$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.99 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e64…89c3backed Heroic | 43c | 373.49$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.19 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa552…0c03backed Aurora | 53c | 365$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed Heroic | 38c | 350.84$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.3 | 386 | 53.9%208 W · 178 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Heroic | 57c | 343.9$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.39 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6450…9547backed Heroic | 43c | 342.4$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.82 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed Aurora | 60c | 336.07$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d33…7287backed Heroic | 80c | 334.57$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.57 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7c…5a30backed Heroic | 35c | 328.63$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.61 | 95 | 44.2%42 W · 53 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc0…a854backed Aurora | 58c | 305.71$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Aurora | 52c | 287.44$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.44 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Aurora | 72c | 278.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e0…e51dbacked Heroic | 52c | 261.87$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.55 | 194 | 43.3%84 W · 110 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c17…6660backed Heroic | 79c | 257.33$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.82 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03e…da65backed Aurora | 64c | 252.35$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.41 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Heroic | 45c | 236.63$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.11 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Aurora | 27c | 226.09$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.33 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Heroic | 54c | 212.34$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.34 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Heroic | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.08 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…e1dcbacked Heroic | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.76 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Aurora | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Heroic | 74c | 189.93$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb34c…d906backed Heroic | 47c | 185$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Aurora | 45c | 184.92$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.45 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…cea0backed Heroic | 47c | 180$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x101f…b386backed Aurora | 57c | 175.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 321 | 54.8%176 W · 145 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13aa…88d6backed Heroic | 29c | 172.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.17 | 187 | 69%129 W · 58 L | +20.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaea9…42a1backed Aurora | 44c | 171.51$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.58 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…08a4backed Aurora | 19c | 165.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef0…f14cbacked Aurora | 14c | 163.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 11cpaid | +198.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora | 40c | 161.79$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Aurora | 54c | 159.51$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.13 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Heroic | 30c | 150$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf938…1249backed Heroic | 80c | 139.58$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 173 | 60.7%105 W · 68 L | -13.6wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…cd5fbacked Heroic | 46c | 135.83$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.24 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb11…66cbbacked Aurora | 28c | 130$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 147 | 44.9%66 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c0…23d8backed Heroic | 55c | 129.95$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.95 | 239 | 57.3%137 W · 102 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Aurora | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823b…59e9backed Aurora | 66c | 121.73$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a65…ffcdbacked Heroic | 46c | 110$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.7 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Aurora | 22c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x461f…8719backed Aurora | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed Heroic | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbda6…6ae0backed Heroic | 49c | 106.34$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.53 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Aurora | 58c | 104.78$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x055a…d83bbacked Aurora | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc093…de0ebacked Aurora | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Aurora | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Aurora | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Aurora | 42c | 96.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Aurora | 55c | 93.85$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Aurora | 18c | 93.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…2d98backed Aurora | 59c | 91.31$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ff…82cfbacked Aurora | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 58cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Heroic | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Heroic | 41c | 84.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.53 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01d4…33d8backed Heroic | 58c | 84.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93aa…6ac0backed Heroic | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 61c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d6…9aeabacked Heroic | 63c | 75.57$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 121 | 32.2%39 W · 82 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…e5eabacked Heroic | 28c | 71.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 407 | 45.5%185 W · 222 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Aurora | 16c | 71.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb331…4f70backed Aurora | 20c | 71.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3726…8521backed Aurora | 55c | 63.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Aurora | 43c | 59.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed Heroic | 33c | 58.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 150 | 33.3%50 W · 100 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Aurora | 31c | 56.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageHeroic won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)Heroic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.