Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x448a28c7666430a395b638a4f1f93e0a338c243faeb9b227e71a7dff5e7c8005
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $218,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $218,795 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c29…afadbacked Heroic | 45c | 37,998$17,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,240.87 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Heroic | 51c | 13,799$7,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,039.24 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 49c | 10,558$5,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,348.39 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a1…73d6backed Aurora | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,100 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Heroic | 49c | 8,224$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Aurora | 62c | 7,258$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,758.27 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Aurora | 51c | 5,000$2,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,429.99 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…05babacked Aurora | 41c | 4,818$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,858.19 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…16acbacked Aurora | 54c | 4,030$2,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,864.7 | 229 | 54.1%124 W · 105 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…de0fbacked Aurora | 52c | 3,973$2,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,914.72 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb63…a71dbacked Aurora | 52c | 3,846$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,846.16 | 201 | 59.7%120 W · 81 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Heroic | 48c | 3,801$1,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,824.55 | 174 | 44.8%78 W · 96 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0738…6392backed Aurora | 76c | 2,635$2,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.86 | 212 | 64.2%136 W · 76 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…96a5backed Heroic | 45c | 2,504$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.25 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…e05fbacked Aurora | 57c | 2,497$1,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.79 | 412 | 42.2%174 W · 238 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora | 50c | 2,418$1,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200.36 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Aurora | 57c | 2,127$1,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.39 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x533e…47f4backed Heroic | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6998…ae95backed Heroic | 4c | 1,822$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.21 | 168 | 21.4%36 W · 132 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora | 50c | 1,411$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.27 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Aurora | 47c | 1,271$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.02 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Aurora | 58c | 1,218$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.32 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…e2d4backed Heroic | 46c | 1,200$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.2 | 161 | 42.9%69 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Heroic | 47c | 1,153$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.89 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Aurora | 55c | 1,140$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.2 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed Heroic | 54c | 1,110$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 386 | 53.9%208 W · 178 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdd…d385backed Aurora | 52c | 1,100$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a9…3d6fbacked Aurora | 50c | 1,027$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.67 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed Aurora | 66c | 981.19$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.71 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2775…3652backed Heroic | 10c | 941.43$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.81 | 330 | 41.8%138 W · 192 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…88d7backed Heroic | 49c | 918.37$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 103 | 34%35 W · 68 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Aurora | 62c | 900$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.87 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b89…1069backed Aurora | 50c | 850$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 156 | 53.8%84 W · 72 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…dcb9backed Aurora | 45c | 820$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.2 | 285 | 49.1%140 W · 145 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506b…3f70backed Aurora | 45c | 807.43$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.33 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3741…517ebacked Aurora | 49c | 800$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Aurora | 61c | 747.06$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.79 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x598b…f296backed Aurora | 49c | 732$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.32 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f9…cf34backed Aurora | 68c | 707.65$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.92 | 186 | 61.8%115 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Aurora | 49c | 677.31$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.03 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6463…1f5cbacked Aurora | 48c | 600$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.3 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Heroic | 66c | 600$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde95…b97fbacked Heroic | 52c | 586.01$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.99 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe375…dadfbacked Aurora | 54c | 572.22$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.22 | 129 | 48.1%62 W · 67 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Aurora | 38c | 566.46$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.89 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Aurora | 53c | 565.37$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.39 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed Heroic | 54c | 545.09$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed Aurora | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.47 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a97…66f5backed Aurora | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.47 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed Aurora | 55c | 506.79$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.08 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Aurora | 49c | 500.72$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.7 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…19c0backed Heroic | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9a…a06bbacked Heroic | 8c | 500$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 378 | 11.1%42 W · 336 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5c84backed Heroic | 51c | 492.83$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 264 | 53%140 W · 124 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6450…9547backed Aurora | 55c | 424.87$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.87 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Heroic | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf2…54efbacked Heroic | 47c | 399$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e0…e51dbacked Heroic | 50c | 397.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 194 | 43.3%84 W · 110 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Aurora | 51c | 394$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…aec3backed Aurora | 54c | 379.05$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.51 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…ed28backed Aurora | 50c | 370$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.1 | 605 | 52.6%318 W · 287 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a4…4249backed Aurora | 58c | 362.45$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.78 | 196 | 64.8%127 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd7…ee69backed Heroic | 56c | 357.18$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.02 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ea…d96abacked Heroic | 44c | 350.56$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.67 | 287 | 48.8%140 W · 147 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7b…b29fbacked Aurora | 53c | 348$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b8…2bf7backed Aurora | 53c | 343$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Aurora | 47c | 327.58$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.69 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf96f…b5e5backed Aurora | 47c | 322.19$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.43 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Aurora | 54c | 321.57$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.03 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Aurora | 62c | 320$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.6 | 285 | 44.9%128 W · 157 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Aurora | 57c | 317.74$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.44 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…971abacked Aurora | 64c | 310.61$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.12 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed Heroic | 59c | 306.7$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…1655backed Aurora | 52c | 300$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Heroic | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Aurora | 49c | 299.71$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.51 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd173…abfbbacked Heroic | 47c | 292$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Aurora | 53c | 289.86$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.06 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc03e…da65backed Heroic | 65c | 280$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.63 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Aurora | 74c | 276.43$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aurora | 50c | 272.87$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.54 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb22d…3a13backed Heroic | 56c | 270.6$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.49 | 240 | 45.4%109 W · 131 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Heroic | 48c | 270.23$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.93 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…5cfebacked Heroic | 49c | 264.26$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.68 | 165 | 50.9%84 W · 81 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…13f5backed Aurora | 38c | 262.59$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.79 | 450 | 46.7%210 W · 240 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01d4…33d8backed Heroic | 60c | 261.54$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…08a4backed Aurora | 43c | 261.34$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.69 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Heroic | 47c | 245.42$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.77 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Heroic | 65c | 235.97$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.14 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Aurora | 52c | 230$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 256 | 39.5%101 W · 155 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc2…514cbacked Aurora | 46c | 218.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.74 | 338 | 45.6%154 W · 184 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a65…ffcdbacked Heroic | 48c | 207.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Aurora | 48c | 206.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.21 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6a…d38abacked Heroic | 50c | 200.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Heroic | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 210 | 45.7%96 W · 114 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed Aurora | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…9a41backed Aurora | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 230 | 50.9%117 W · 113 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Aurora | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…15e6backed Aurora | 62c | 193.71$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.71 | 150 | 64.7%97 W · 53 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c29…21aabacked Aurora | 47c | 183.73$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.39 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageHeroic won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 1 WinnerHeroic won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)Heroic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.