Mls · resolved market
Seattle Sounders FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x626e83e007439ac4e3d281575c438a5674a7ad18a168bf99d821079de4646faa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 18c | 3,000$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Over | 71c | 1,737$1,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.12 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 41c | 1,663$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.9 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 67c | 1,399$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.45 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 29c | 1,038$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.18 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6155…808ebacked Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Under | 12c | 970.97$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.13 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 57c | 855.6$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.41 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 44c | 852.09$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.14 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Under | 18c | 616$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.88 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4a…e7cabacked Under | 50c | 587.74$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.87 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9958…b9acbacked Over | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 572.74$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.37 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Under | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ea…9c73backed Over | 77c | 537.98$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.62 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 43c | 445.44$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.89 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba1d…d326backed Under | 24c | 416.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…0935backed Over | 75c | 333.07$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.47 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.29per pick | 56cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 20c | 276$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…6ca8backed Over | 62c | 259.72$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.72 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 20c | 237.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 45c | 220.64$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.99 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 73c | 160.61$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…cea7backed Over | 80c | 156.69$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…984abacked Under | 21c | 134.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 37c | 125.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.3 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9c…601abacked Over | 34c | 112.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2507…d5f2backed Under | 58c | 112.25$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Under | 46c | 105.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 38c | 105$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed Under | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc39…398abacked Under | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c7…808fbacked Over | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad57…2fc0backed Over | 54c | 72.06$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 57c | 71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 71c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 71c | 52.53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x71e8…2f67backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 48c | 43.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 49c | 41.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x114e…dcefbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +5.5wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xae3b…e06ebacked Under | 28c | 36.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 48c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f65…ec56backed Over | 75c | 26.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.51per pick | 71cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 77c | 25.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. Austin FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. Austin FC: Austin FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. Austin FC: Austin FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. Austin FC: Austin FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. Austin FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. Austin FC: Seattle Sounders FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. Austin FC: Seattle Sounders FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. Austin FC: Seattle Sounders FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Austin FC (-1.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-1.5)Austin FC won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-2.5)Austin FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.