TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Seattle Sounders FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$96,766
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$101,747

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,766 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7ad7…42aabacked Over60c65,431$39,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,387.331353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under41c23,224$9,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,596.751,44436.8%532 W · 912 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under41c7,000$2,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,83526345.2%119 W · 144 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Under39c6,837$2,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,683.9117740.7%72 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cbe…1f4ebacked Over61c5,567$3,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,154.132365.2%15 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+32.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Under40c3,180$1,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,271.936250%31 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under40c3,168$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,275.3697146.1%448 W · 523 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under40c2,245$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.453,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91fe…c1c6backed Over45c2,059$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.6438246.1%176 W · 206 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under40c2,005$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.3952639.5%208 W · 318 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed Under40c2,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8002065%13 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+30.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Under40c2,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80017258.1%100 W · 72 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under40c1,948$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.3735550.4%179 W · 176 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under57c1,914$1,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,082.2171443.7%312 W · 402 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under40c1,725$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6901,27048%610 W · 660 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47c7…cac7backed Under40c1,568$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.29457.4%54 W · 40 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0f…0e48backed Under1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153938.5%15 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+197%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under42c1,491$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.314348.8%21 W · 22 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under51c1,407$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.711,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Under39c1,291$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.5622841.7%95 W · 133 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcc7…4d38backed Under42c1,057$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.784755.3%26 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2d4…23e8backed Over44c1,029$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.131957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+18.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6155…808ebacked Over43c1,000$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick44cpaid+81.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41053046.4%246 W · 284 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9ea…9c73backed Under1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Under40c882.19$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.8836247.2%171 W · 191 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad0b…a514backed Over51c700$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3433735.1%13 W · 24 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x191f…4a8dbacked Under41c687.5$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.4414652.1%76 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd202…1ef5backed Under3c666.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed Under40c600$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24015858.2%92 W · 66 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd91a…211cbacked Over24c578.15$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.395337.7%20 W · 33 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+24.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c5b…ec01backed Under40c489.1$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.643435.3%12 W · 22 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-30.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Over63c460.29$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.3139435.8%141 W · 253 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Under49c452.33$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.6419645.9%90 W · 106 L+10.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Under40c418$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.223858%138 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Under40c404.05$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.2920043%86 W · 114 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed Under40c400$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16014359.4%85 W · 58 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under76c398.5$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.8624046.7%112 W · 128 L-15.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-19.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under41c394.55$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.7972850.7%369 W · 359 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under61c321.84$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.891,26245.2%571 W · 691 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under41c317.08$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.4270249.7%349 W · 353 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Under64c312.5$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012751.2%65 W · 62 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65b5…aa71backed Over60c282$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.814062.1%87 W · 53 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6534…7cc7backed Under40c282$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.820133.3%67 W · 134 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa797…dedebacked Over13c277.51$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.7314657.5%84 W · 62 L+14.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+19.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over49c262.01$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.4168150.8%346 W · 335 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96c4…f7b8backed Under77c259.21$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Under40c244$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9252923.8%126 W · 403 L-25.8wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under40c241.88$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.541,30151.2%666 W · 635 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over29c212.13$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.4899340.1%398 W · 595 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2316…9819backed Under41c206.7$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.751844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Under40c200$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7917751.4%91 W · 86 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8015060%90 W · 60 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed Under40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8014459.7%86 W · 58 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed Under40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8014257.7%82 W · 60 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Under41c195.12$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8012146.3%56 W · 65 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under76c180.5$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.9831446.5%146 W · 168 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb67a…340bbacked Over57c174.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.57633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bec…8d52backed Under41c173$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.166163.9%39 W · 22 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+21.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0464…67dabacked Under50c166.06$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.87659.2%45 W · 31 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa991…0935backed Over72c156.3$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.29per pick56cpaid+66.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa494…4a1fbacked Under40c156$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.49058.9%53 W · 37 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Under41c146.34$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010450%52 W · 52 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under41c128$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4868550.5%346 W · 339 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under41c128$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4891553%485 W · 430 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bb8…7017backed Under40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf15…a1febacked Under40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505068%34 W · 16 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7b94…09dcbacked Under40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502060%12 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Under39c121.98$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5712951.2%66 W · 63 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under43c117.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3280249.8%399 W · 403 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Under74c108.87$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.5648344.9%217 W · 266 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over25c104.75$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5828721.6%62 W · 225 L-29.9wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-44.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed Under41c104.73$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6812848.4%62 W · 66 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Over60c102.14$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9226450%132 W · 132 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70ca…2443backed Over61c101.98$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.77333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ec5…fd53backed Over24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766339.7%25 W · 38 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.535149.6%174 W · 177 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a5…d093backed Under40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4013461.2%82 W · 52 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9a9…68b6backed Under40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b25…7a69backed Under40c98.08$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.23862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x633e…d305backed Over63c96.75$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.84440.9%18 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over21c90.75$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.8946156.2%259 W · 202 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf90…fa11backed Over61c85.08$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.18728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-49.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under41c83.58$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2710042%42 W · 58 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-23.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x056b…5a03backed Under39c82.16$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.342835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf99a…df76backed Under74c81.35$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602657.7%15 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Under42c81$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0216948.5%82 W · 87 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under39c70.55$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5692346.6%430 W · 493 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under42c64$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8827047%127 W · 143 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Under80c59.74$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7910957.8%63 W · 46 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x277b…31fabacked Over26c59.35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.922860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+28.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0576…6232backed Under40c58.7$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.488129.6%24 W · 57 L-10.9wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe2ab…0dc8backed Under57c55.61$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.71942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Over21c49.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4944447.3%210 W · 234 L-1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0af6…ffdbbacked Under40c49.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under41c49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0955750.1%279 W · 278 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over48c47.3$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6596756.8%549 W · 418 L+73.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9663…5b70backed Under40c45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd819…2d80backed Over60c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165549.1%27 W · 28 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed Under40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1615259.9%91 W · 61 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.