Mls · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d9df30b79581e32cc41361753a04adff7961fcd4f17f03d4bd96bb92971d538
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Austin FCof Seattle Sounders FC, Austin FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Seattle Sounders FC | 36c | 11,280$4,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,097.42 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Austin FC | 65c | 4,800$3,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Seattle Sounders FC | 31c | 2,499$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.72 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Austin FC | 62c | 2,000$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 172 | 58.1%100 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Austin FC | 69c | 1,767$1,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.77 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Austin FC | 62c | 1,568$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.84 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Seattle Sounders FC | 17c | 1,079$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.28 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Austin FC | 63c | 1,046$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.41 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Austin FC | 73c | 1,019$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Austin FC | 62c | 922.61$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.19 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Austin FC | 65c | 798.73$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.25 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Sounders FC | 27c | 449.85$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.05 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Austin FC | 69c | 324.97$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.43 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Austin FC | 65c | 299.99$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.06 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Austin FC | 63c | 296$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.52 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Austin FC | 63c | 295.46$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.32 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Seattle Sounders FC | 37c | 221.45$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.77 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Austin FC | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Seattle Sounders FC | 38c | 141.74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Austin FC | 66c | 127.92$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Austin FC | 70c | 88.35$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Seattle Sounders FC | 38c | 87.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Seattle Sounders FC | 34c | 74.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Austin FC | 62c | 69.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…7d67backed Seattle Sounders FC | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Austin FC | 66c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Seattle Sounders FC | 33c | 44.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 200 | 43%86 W · 114 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eba…cb3dbacked Austin FC | 67c | 35.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Seattle Sounders FC | 36c | 34.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Austin FC | 62c | 31.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Austin FC | 66c | 30.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Austin FC | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Austin FC | 68c | 23.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Austin FC | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. Austin FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. Austin FC: Austin FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. Austin FC: Austin FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. Austin FC: Austin FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. Austin FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. Austin FC: Seattle Sounders FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. Austin FC: Seattle Sounders FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. Austin FC: Seattle Sounders FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Austin FC (-1.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-2.5)Austin FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.