Fifa International · resolved market
Will Norway win the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62d311c774ff0afb9676e751942b5037a3921e1c9ef3e1b939edad130067320c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 14,902$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 202 | 1.5%3 W · 199 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd2…e6d0backed Yes | 7c | 9,814$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 6c | 9,073$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.25 | 589 | 26.8%158 W · 431 L | -30.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 5c | 5,844$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6faf…de48backed Yes | 3c | 2,873$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 202 | 24.8%50 W · 152 L | -15.8wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x610e…b852backed Yes | 2c | 2,864$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a0…589ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,782$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 5c | 2,479$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.95 | 1,075 | 45.2%486 W · 589 L | +41.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,393$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed Yes | 4c | 1,977$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.38 | 172 | 35.5%61 W · 111 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 5c | 1,773$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.88 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…d62fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,772$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 458 | 20.3%93 W · 365 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…1e0bbacked Yes | 6c | 798.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x058b…ec96backed Yes | 6c | 736.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…da03backed Yes | 7c | 722.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8e…21b7backed Yes | 6c | 542.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e9…5493backed Yes | 6c | 509.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…76c6backed Yes | 6c | 473.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 6c | 469.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x978d…c0a2backed Yes | 6c | 467.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaaf…e600backed Yes | 6c | 412.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 341.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 293 | 7.5%22 W · 271 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…b7dfbacked Yes | 7c | 306.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed Yes | 6c | 248.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 215 | 17.2%37 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a60…e87abacked Yes | 6c | 241.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3803…7eafbacked Yes | 6c | 207.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 208 | 50.5%105 W · 103 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ee…9ab3backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2de…9ce4backed Yes | 6c | 169.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Norway win the World Cup?this page
- Will Norway be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?No won
- Will Norway be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?No won
- Will Norway be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?Yes won
- Will Norway be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?No won
- Will Norway be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?No won
- Will Norway be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.