World Politics · resolved market
Morgan McSweeney out as Starmer Chief of Staff by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62d392bff9b9b60102050a99cef97c772958f1411d3eca367fd0146ecd6a4a0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ee…e231backed Yes | 28c | 1,061$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.59 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…f596backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2587…ace3backed No | 6c | 1,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 73c | 811.58$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.22 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 16c | 627.76$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.88 | 150 | 14%21 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x926c…a86bbacked Yes | 26c | 459.34$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.34 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1662…1fd9backed Yes | 36c | 438.28$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.34per pick | 22cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 70c | 300$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…6e8cbacked No | 45c | 297.78$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8aa…b64bbacked Yes | 68c | 290.29$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x277b…f52cbacked Yes | 72c | 275.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f89…f715backed Yes | 27c | 225.35$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.79 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa872…9fe4backed No | 11c | 225$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +13.2wins | +0.49per pick | 29cpaid | +167.8%equal weight | 78+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 42c | 158.36$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.06 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 28c | 114.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…de47backed Yes | 45c | 113.94$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc772…4daabacked Yes | 49c | 94.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 35c | 91.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…51acbacked No | 33c | 91.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…37c7backed Yes | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…e639backed Yes | 56c | 85.02$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 14cpaid | +165.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73ca…055abacked Yes | 17c | 80.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +274.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 76$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 36c | 73.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc3…d183backed No | 72c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 23c | 59.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 37c | 58.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1cb…3accbacked Yes | 51c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…c658backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 23cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf5…e9d5backed No | 73c | 46.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 41c | 44.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 63c | 37.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 69c | 17.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.