Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63017f754552869cf2ba629026c5bcf15fdff462c6668fcbbeca660ac88fc088
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 1,451$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068.95 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 486.94$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 455.26$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 28c | 364.11$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.2 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 66c | 355.72$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.31 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 339.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 301.64$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.23 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 269.39$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.69 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 233.15$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.37 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 20c | 220.15$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.07 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 220$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.44 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 21c | 210.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.98 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 201.5$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 76c | 158.75$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.65 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 27c | 149.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.24 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 143.74$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.41 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 139.93$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 138.3$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.36 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 27c | 131.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.17 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 76c | 125.76$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.52 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 121$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.75 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed No | 17c | 119.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 117.65$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.83 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 30c | 114.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.47 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 107.63$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.43 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…465dbacked Yes | 29c | 105.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.68 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 104.3$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 12c | 104$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 20c | 102.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.29 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.95 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked Yes | 26c | 97.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.66 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 31c | 89.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 88.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 24c | 85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 70c | 76.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 70.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.71 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 25c | 63.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 29c | 61.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.64 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 42c | 56.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…33babacked Yes | 53c | 54.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +165.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 74c | 51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 68c | 49.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 21c | 49.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 78c | 49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 37c | 48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 46.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 24c | 45.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 40.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 39.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 39.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 77c | 37.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x173d…cbb0backed Yes | 75c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 69c | 36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 29c | 35.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 32c | 35.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ba…2f9abacked Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 33.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 67c | 31.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 68c | 29.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 75c | 26.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 45c | 24.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x038c…b4e0backed No | 65c | 23.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…849cbacked No | 74c | 21.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 20.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x176c…62f6backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed No | 70c | 15.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 15.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.