Tennis · resolved market
Wuhan Tennis Open: Naomi Osaka vs Linda Noskova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6310e801b58c92b72613119ea5b0c01fd20a11d2b02056ded0f08d1a9c0b5797
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noskovaof Osaka, Noskova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Noskova | 37c | 4,500$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,850 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Osaka | 60c | 2,698$1,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,623.09 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…e957backed Osaka | 65c | 2,313$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.43 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Noskova | 40c | 2,200$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,326 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Noskova | 59c | 1,946$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.22 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Noskova | 42c | 1,750$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.99 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Osaka | 59c | 1,511$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.56 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Noskova | 39c | 1,378$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.71 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Osaka | 37c | 1,362$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Noskova | 36c | 1,361$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.13 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…2dd7backed Noskova | 39c | 1,273$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.9 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Noskova | 72c | 1,176$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.7 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Osaka | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Osaka | 63c | 990.43$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…5bd1backed Osaka | 20c | 942.02$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Osaka | 36c | 912$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.96 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Noskova | 70c | 857.14$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Noskova | 40c | 855$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.21 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Osaka | 62c | 677.3$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Osaka | 37c | 598.99$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.53 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Noskova | 51c | 588.19$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.3 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7f…90c5backed Osaka | 68c | 495.59$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -7.5wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Osaka | 32c | 454$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.08 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Noskova | 43c | 290.81$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.67 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Noskova | 37c | 286.37$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.29 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…4c0abacked Noskova | 35c | 269.18$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.69 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Noskova | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Noskova | 35c | 253.97$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.59 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…3a1bbacked Osaka | 60c | 240$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.5 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Noskova | 40c | 213.75$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.25 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f83…7252backed Noskova | 38c | 200$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Noskova | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Osaka | 64c | 169$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.09 | 178 | 67.4%120 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Osaka | 61c | 166.6$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.63 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Osaka | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55d…51f1backed Osaka | 63c | 156.1$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +117.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa7…04bfbacked Osaka | 35c | 154.48$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Osaka | 64c | 110$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Noskova | 58c | 109.97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 267 | 46.1%123 W · 144 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Osaka | 61c | 108.05$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Noskova | 39c | 101.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.75 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5a…5787backed Noskova | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2553…59f7backed Osaka | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Noskova | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0a…0684backed Noskova | 39c | 61.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Osaka | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Noskova | 63c | 56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac01…2d77backed Osaka | 50c | 54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Osaka | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Noskova | 39c | 35.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba9…bfaebacked Osaka | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 177 | 54.8%97 W · 80 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef35…c333backed Osaka | 66c | 30.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Noskova | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21e3…af5cbacked Osaka | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fed…3b22backed Osaka | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.