Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Heroic vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x632eeeaa014dee054e74d217c393173d20951797c3de98ca28adf7c882fc43d6

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Heroicof Heroic, REKONIX
Resolved: Feb 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $67,749
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $82,392

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,749 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Dota2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc736…7255backed REKONIX	56c	5,012$2,789 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,789.22	41	41.5%17 W · 24 L	-4.5wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked REKONIX	26c	4,837$1,279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,279.35	1,186	43.2%512 W · 674 L	+42.2wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed REKONIX	0c	4,632$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.08	616	9.7%60 W · 556 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Heroic	45c	4,295$1,926 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,369.25	1,577	43.9%692 W · 885 L	-10.4wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked REKONIX	48c	3,411$1,635 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,634.91	551	57%314 W · 237 L	+17.4wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked REKONIX	69c	3,220$2,222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,222.13	396	60.1%238 W · 158 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked REKONIX	52c	2,892$1,504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,503.64	135	58.5%79 W · 56 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Heroic	72c	2,167$1,552 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$615.59	328	54.9%180 W · 148 L	+11.8wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Heroic	74c	1,822$1,340 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$482.17	568	48.8%277 W · 291 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Heroic	57c	1,750$1,006 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$744.66	2,012	44.2%889 W · 1,123 L	+36.6wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cf…0cc7backed REKONIX	41c	1,386$570 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$569.5	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-45.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x469f…3d4fbacked REKONIX	15c	1,385$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	235	46.8%110 W · 125 L	+10.7wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	0%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed REKONIX	29c	1,250$363 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$362.5	465	35.1%163 W · 302 L	+22.9wins	+0.05per pick	30cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Heroic	57c	1,062$608 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$454.39	1,155	47.8%552 W · 603 L	+29.5wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3532…3711backed Heroic	46c	1,030$477 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$553.2	40	65%26 W · 14 L	+7.0wins	+0.17per pick	48cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Heroic	79c	900$711 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$189.2	592	50.5%299 W · 293 L	-20.7wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed REKONIX	29c	622.45$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.51	93	45.2%42 W · 51 L	+5.4wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed Heroic	52c	600$312 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$288	360	54.4%196 W · 164 L	+12.1wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x363a…4a8dbacked Heroic	71c	568.35$403 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$164.87	82	58.5%48 W · 34 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	63cpaid	-11%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Heroic	61c	531.94$323 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208.93	605	52.6%318 W · 287 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6db2…1338backed Heroic	48c	499.99$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$260	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed REKONIX	7c	484.27$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.21	335	41.2%138 W · 197 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed REKONIX	29c	454.44$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.79	104	45.2%47 W · 57 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe2d…77b4backed Heroic	71c	422.54$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.54	47	57.4%27 W · 20 L	+2.7wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+31.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d96…d524backed REKONIX	30c	333.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	269	57.6%155 W · 114 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Heroic	78c	316.89$247 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.89	476	60.7%289 W · 187 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe99e…0084backed REKONIX	24c	300$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.94	876	45.7%400 W · 476 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed REKONIX	35c	280$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	641	49.9%320 W · 321 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked REKONIX	25c	256.67$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.8	920	56.4%519 W · 401 L	+78.3wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6998…ae95backed REKONIX	17c	243.9$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.45	168	21.4%36 W · 132 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1976…e363backed REKONIX	45c	243.29$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.43	56	46.4%26 W · 30 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3075…beafbacked REKONIX	8c	224.03$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.92	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed Heroic	69c	215$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.4	341	54.5%186 W · 155 L	+15.8wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x096a…0074backed REKONIX	48c	209.58$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	39	28.2%11 W · 28 L	-7.0wins	-0.18per pick	46cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xca4a…338abacked Heroic	48c	208.33$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.33	43	51.2%22 W · 21 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Heroic	57c	203.36$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.96	181	43.6%79 W · 102 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed REKONIX	26c	202.17$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.17	113	48.7%55 W · 58 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Heroic	51c	200$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.47	804	43.9%353 W · 451 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-11%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed REKONIX	22c	200$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	737	43.6%321 W · 416 L	-10.8wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x40ba…7ea5backed Heroic	75c	200$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	537	57.7%310 W · 227 L	+11.8wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Heroic	51c	196.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.08	235	29.4%69 W · 166 L	-21.5wins	-0.09per pick	39cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0225…6e17backed Heroic	58c	186.67$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.6	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed REKONIX	31c	176.58$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.38	1,272	45%572 W · 700 L	-40.5wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Heroic	80c	145.63$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.62	1,901	47.6%905 W · 996 L	+4.6wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Heroic	70c	145.2$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.87	340	63.2%215 W · 125 L	+38.9wins	+0.11per pick	52cpaid	+13%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked REKONIX	66c	144.95$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.59	552	51.6%285 W · 267 L	+10.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Heroic	41c	141.78$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.39	1,821	45%820 W · 1,001 L	+33.5wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed Heroic	72c	116.86$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.73	522	43.9%229 W · 293 L	+11.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f47…f611backed REKONIX	16c	112.33$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.92	23	65.2%15 W · 8 L	+1.9wins	+0.08per pick	57cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed REKONIX	31c	109.68$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	29	31%9 W · 20 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc064…6fa8backed Heroic	79c	108.86$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.86	252	48.8%123 W · 129 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe34e…c0f4backed REKONIX	22c	100$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	65	47.7%31 W · 34 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb25e…39aabacked Heroic	78c	100$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	21	66.7%14 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	69cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b41…2c02backed Heroic	73c	99.19$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.09	726	37.5%272 W · 454 L	+3.4wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed REKONIX	30c	92.96$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.67	491	33.6%165 W · 326 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d80…7a4bbacked REKONIX	19c	91.58$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	37	45.9%17 W · 20 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed REKONIX	25c	89$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.25	466	64.2%299 W · 167 L	+9.2wins	+0.02per pick	62cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3abc…1a6ebacked Heroic	39c	89$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	+1.5wins	+0.09per pick	56cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf828…00a5backed Heroic	66c	88.02$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.54	50	42%21 W · 29 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c49…b222backed REKONIX	24c	83.2$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed Heroic	51c	80.39$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.39	595	56.6%337 W · 258 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed Heroic	66c	73.64$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.04	721	54%389 W · 332 L	-8.8wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed Heroic	59c	71.85$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.76	305	34.4%105 W · 200 L	-14.3wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x850a…e5dbbacked Heroic	70c	71.43$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.43	80	61.3%49 W · 31 L	-4.9wins	-0.06per pick	67cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x26ff…2df7backed REKONIX	31c	69.37$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.21	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	38cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x276d…1cf4backed REKONIX	29c	62.48$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.12	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	-2.4wins	-0.08per pick	35cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3494…04f4backed REKONIX	29c	60$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	118	36.4%43 W · 75 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce1f…7392backed REKONIX	23c	60$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	678	53.5%363 W · 315 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa516…235cbacked Heroic	69c	52$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.08	306	43.5%133 W · 173 L	-22.6wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x101f…b386backed REKONIX	29c	50.72$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.71	321	54.8%176 W · 145 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4566…8063backed Heroic	63c	50.41$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.6	34	76.5%26 W · 8 L	+6.6wins	+0.19per pick	57cpaid	+41%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5b6e…55b9backed REKONIX	48c	45.65$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Heroic	58c	45.49$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.98	1,521	37.9%576 W · 945 L	-57.8wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf24…1208backed REKONIX	30c	44.89$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.29	45	40%18 W · 27 L	-5.2wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Heroic	64c	42$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.15	144	53.5%77 W · 67 L	+4.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd515…0023backed REKONIX	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.7wins	-0.56per pick	56cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Heroic	68c	40$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.75	64	60.9%39 W · 25 L	+4.2wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x07aa…f2f1backed REKONIX	36c	39.08$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.07	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-4.4wins	-0.19per pick	32cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe175…7d48backed Heroic	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	58	46.6%27 W · 31 L	-3.7wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf035…0924backed Heroic	70c	31.54$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.46	124	49.2%61 W · 63 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d27…bd5abacked REKONIX	66c	30.3$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	468	72.2%338 W · 130 L	+36.5wins	+0.08per pick	64cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x87f0…aaf2backed Heroic	67c	30$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.9	15	66.7%10 W · 5 L	+1.6wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3873…dec8backed Heroic	65c	21.57$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.57	139	46%64 W · 75 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ec…7bdfbacked Heroic	71c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.8	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	70cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbc8…d266backed Heroic	78c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.4	58	44.8%26 W · 32 L	-7.6wins	-0.13per pick	58cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6994…eed0backed Heroic	68c	14.79$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.69	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	54cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a2c…f983backed Heroic	79c	12.91$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.71	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.29per pick	71cpaid	+41.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Dota 2: Heroic vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winnerthis page
Dota 2: Heroic vs REKONIX (BO3) - BLAST Slam Play-InHeroic won
Dota 2: Heroic vs REKONIX - Game 2 WinnerHeroic won
First Blood in Game 2?Heroic won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Dota 2: Heroic vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event